Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were clear favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Twente had 3.3 days of rest, Telstar 3.2 and had to travel 155 km.
Away travel155 kmRest days3.3 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Twente69%
Draw18%
Telstar14%
Twente59%
Draw23%
Telstar19%
Twente69%
Draw18%
Telstar13%
Twente61%
Draw21%
Telstar18%
Twente68%
Draw18%
Telstar14%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Twente
Telstar
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
41
AttackIn forecast
24
49
DefenceIn forecast
13
50
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteTelstar
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
0.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.25
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
75%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.75
ShotsContext
9.50
6.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
33%
On target shareContext
26%
13.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
68%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
15.75
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
5.67
BlocksContext
4.25
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
64%
Save rateContext
60%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
548
PassesContext
363
478
Accurate passesContext
286
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.00
FoulsContext
10.75
6.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
0.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
18.50
ShotsContext
10.20
6.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
35%
12.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
63%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.13
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
5.14
BlocksContext
4.20
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
61%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
475
PassesContext
349
396
Accurate passesContext
268
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.84
8.75
FoulsContext
11.30
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
LWWD
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km490 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Telstar
WLLD
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel155 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 3.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 155 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 490 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4Ruud Nijstad
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
10Y. Taha
11D. Rots
9W. Weghorst
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
16S. Valk
2J. Hardeveld
10T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
3G. Alders
27P. Brouwer
7Rui Mendes
11N. Þórisson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Telstar+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Telstar · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Twente | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | W 4–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Twente wins2 draws0 Telstar wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 15 Feb 2026Telstar1–1Twente
- 7 Nov 2025Twente0–0Telstar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Twente | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.50 | 10.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.75 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 1.75 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Twente | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 6.88 | |
| Match total | 11.26 | 11.51 | 10.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 1.90 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Twente4 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Telstar4 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
5
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
