Twente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Twente68.1%fair odds 1.47
Draw18.7%fair odds 5.36
Telstar13.2%fair odds 7.58
Expected goals2.36 – 0.95total 3.31
Likeliest score2–010.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Telstar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Twente ↓ · Telstar → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Twente goals, columns Telstar goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.1%9.86
- 2–19.7%10.34
- 1–18.6%11.57
- 1–08.2%12.24
- 3–08.0%12.56
- 3–17.6%13.17
- 4–04.7%21.33
- 2–24.6%21.69
- 4–14.5%22.36
- 0–04.1%24.46
Winning margin
25.7%
Twente by 3+
fair 3.89
20.2%
Twente by 2
fair 4.95
22.2%
Twente by 1
fair 4.50
18.7%
Draw
fair 5.36
8.7%
Telstar by 1
fair 11.44
3.3%
Telstar by 2
fair 30.18
1.1%
Telstar by 3+
fair 88.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Twente goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
Telstar goals
39%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente win | 68.1% | 67.3% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 18.7% | 19.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Telstar win | 13.2% | 13.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 63.6% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.1% | 56.1% | -0.0 pp |
| Expected goals Twente | 2.36 | 2.32 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Telstar | 0.95 | 0.96 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Twente win68.1%1.47
- Draw18.7%5.36
- Telstar win13.2%7.58
- Double chance Twente or draw86.8%1.15
- Double chance Twente or Telstar81.3%1.23
- Double chance Telstar or draw31.9%3.14
- Draw no bet Twente83.8%1.19
- Draw no bet Telstar16.2%6.17
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.7%1.18
- Over 2.564.2%1.56
- Over 3.542.2%2.37
- Over 4.523.9%4.18
- Under 1.515.3%6.53
- Under 2.535.8%2.80
- Under 3.557.8%1.73
Both teams to score
- Yes56.1%1.78
- No43.9%2.28
- Yes and over 2.547.4%2.11
- Twente win and yes33.7%2.97
- Draw and yes14.6%6.86
- Telstar win and yes7.8%12.83
Team goals
- Twente over 0.590.5%1.10
- Twente over 1.568.2%1.47
- Twente over 2.541.9%2.39
- Telstar over 0.561.5%1.63
- Telstar over 1.524.7%4.04
- Telstar over 2.57.2%13.89
- Twente clean sheet38.5%2.60
- Telstar clean sheet9.5%10.55
- Twente win to nil34.4%2.90
- Telstar win to nil5.4%18.54
Handicap
- Twente −1.545.9%2.18
- Twente −2.525.7%3.89
- Telstar +1.554.1%1.85
- Telstar +2.574.3%1.35
- Telstar −1.54.4%22.47
- Twente +1.595.6%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored43
Favourite won55.8%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.606
Over 2.5 called right86.0%
BTTS called right76.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.6% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 16 | 55.5% | 68.8% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.4% | 57.1% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 71.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.9% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 43 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6321 | 0.6509 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 38.6% |
| Favourite won | 52.6% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 43 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.