Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. Udinese had 7 days of rest, AS Roma 4 and had to travel 468 km.
Away travel468 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
Udinese20%
Draw26%
AS Roma54%
Udinese21%
Draw25%
AS Roma54%
Udinese20%
Draw26%
AS Roma54%
Udinese15%
Draw23%
AS Roma62%
Udinese20%
Draw24%
AS Roma55%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 7
Team strength
Udinese
AS Roma
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
74
22
AttackIn forecast
72
18
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseAS Roma
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.59
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
77%
Scored inContext
73%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
11.77
ShotsContext
13.59
3.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.91
31%
On target shareContext
36%
6.95
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
57%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.05
Shots allowedContext
9.91
4.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.55
3.18
BlocksContext
2.78
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
63%
Save rateContext
86%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
356
PassesContext
491
287
Accurate passesContext
411
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.45
FoulsContext
14.18
11.64
Fouls sufferedContext
14.23
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
1.91
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.40
ShotsContext
14.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
29%
On target shareContext
36%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
59%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.78
12.50
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
3.30
BlocksContext
3.44
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
63%
Save rateContext
85%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
357
PassesContext
482
283
Accurate passesContext
402
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.95
13.80
FoulsContext
14.10
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km375 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel468 km2,099 km in 14d
Schedule load26%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 26 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Jan | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 468 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 375 km | 2,099 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
13N. Bertola
31T. Kristensen
28O. Solet
33J. Zemura
38L. Miller
8J. Karlström
19K. Ehizibue
14A. Atta
32J. Ekkelenkamp
9K. Davis
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
8N. El Aynaoui
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
7L. Pellegrini
18M. Soulé
14D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- AS Roma+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.45
AS Roma · Away
1.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-4
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 0.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Como | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lazio | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Fiorentina | L 1–5 A | W 2–1 A |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Atalanta | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Juventus | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 3–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 29 of 63 · 1.38 per game | 40 of 63 · 1.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Udinese wins1 draws7 AS Roma wins
Goals per game0.89 – 1.89
Over 2.567%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets11% · 44%
- 9 Nov 2025AS Roma2–0Udinese
- 26 Jan 2025Udinese1–2AS Roma
- 22 Sep 2024AS Roma3–0Udinese
- 25 Apr 2024Udinese1–2AS Roma
- 26 Nov 2023AS Roma3–1Udinese
- 16 Apr 2023AS Roma3–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 0.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 1.82 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 23% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 27% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 27% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Udinese | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.10 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 4.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 3.23 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.05 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 9/21 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 3.41 | 4.36 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 11/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 6/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Udinese | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 7.20 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.86league 3.79
Red cards0.00league 0.17
Cards 5+14%league 36%
Fouls27.4league 25.6
Penalties0.29league 0.31
Home wins43%league 38%
Udinese1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L22 Nov 25H · Bologna0–30
AS Roma1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W6 Jan 26A · Lecce2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese22 games · scored 25 · conceded 34
2
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
5
31-45
6
6
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
AS Roma22 games · scored 27 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
8
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
