Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Udinese were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Udinese had 7 days of rest, Cagliari 7.7 and had to travel 831 km.
Away travel831 kmRest days7 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Udinese42%
Draw28%
Cagliari30%
Udinese43%
Draw27%
Cagliari30%
Udinese42%
Draw29%
Cagliari29%
Udinese35%
Draw29%
Cagliari36%
Udinese43%
Draw27%
Cagliari30%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
Udinese
Cagliari
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
22
AttackIn forecast
31
18
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseCagliari
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
11.40
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
37%
On target shareContext
32%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
44%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.60
11.60
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.20
BlocksContext
4.50
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
60%
Save rateContext
90%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
376
PassesContext
351
315
Accurate passesContext
286
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.00
FoulsContext
14.60
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.20
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
31%
On target shareContext
31%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
53%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.20
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.56
BlocksContext
4.11
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
66%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
360
PassesContext
342
296
Accurate passesContext
273
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.40
FoulsContext
12.10
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km509 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel831 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 7.7Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 831 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 509 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.3 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
90R. Sava(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
2S. Goglichidze
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
59A. Zanoli
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
17M. Felici
90M. Folorunsho
16M. Prati
14A. Deiola
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
29G. Borrelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Cagliari+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Cagliari · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Udinese wins2 draws0 Cagliari wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 3 May 2025Cagliari1–2Udinese
- 25 Oct 2024Udinese2–0Cagliari
- 18 Feb 2024Udinese1–1Cagliari
- 17 Sep 2023Cagliari0–0Udinese
- 3 Apr 2022Udinese5–1Cagliari
- 18 Dec 2021Cagliari0–4Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.00 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Udinese | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.00 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.25 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.00 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Udinese | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.63 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.51 | 8.78 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.67league 3.62
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+0%league 36%
Fouls23.7league 25.9
Penalties0.00league 0.25
Home wins33%league 38%
UdineseNo previous matches with this referee.
CagliariNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese5 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Cagliari5 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
2
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
