Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Udinese had 16.6 days of rest, Como 15 and had to travel 322 km.
Away travel322 kmRest days16.6 · 15Matches / 14d0 · 0
Udinese22%
Draw27%
Como51%
Udinese28%
Draw27%
Como45%
Udinese22%
Draw27%
Como50%
Udinese17%
Draw25%
Como58%
Udinese23%
Draw26%
Como51%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 72
Team strength
Udinese
Como
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
22
AttackIn forecast
72
18
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseComo
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.77
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.73
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
77%
Scored inContext
77%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
10.73
ShotsContext
14.07
3.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
36%
6.21
Shots in the boxContext
9.14
56%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.53
12.77
Shots allowedContext
8.80
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.36
3.47
BlocksContext
2.88
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
65%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
350
PassesContext
528
279
Accurate passesContext
462
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.63
FoulsContext
13.23
11.37
Fouls sufferedContext
11.87
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.62
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.80
ShotsContext
14.90
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
36%
On target shareContext
36%
4.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
53%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
17%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.80
Shots allowedContext
6.70
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.56
3.90
BlocksContext
2.11
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
72%
Save rateContext
77%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
338
PassesContext
578
267
Accurate passesContext
514
79%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.03
14.00
FoulsContext
11.80
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest16.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel322 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16.6Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Mar | 15Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 322 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
11H. Kamara
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
19K. Ehizibue
14A. Atta
32J. Ekkelenkamp
10N. Zaniolo
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
28I. Smolčić
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
6M. Caqueret
10N. Paz
38Assane Diao
11A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Como+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.27points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-6
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.27
Como · Away
1.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-3
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 0.79
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Juventus | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Atalanta | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Bologna | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A |
| Lazio | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Points | 39 of 87 · 1.34 per game | 54 of 87 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Udinese wins0 draws2 Como wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 3 Jan 2026Como1–0Udinese
- 20 Jan 2025Como4–1Udinese
- 1 Sep 2024Udinese1–0Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.77 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.73 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.50 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 47% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 43% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 23% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Udinese | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.46 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 2.96 | |
| Match total | 9.21 | 7.03 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 13/28 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 12/28 | 15% 4/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 11/28 | 11% 3/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.77 | 4.37 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 16/30 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 10/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Udinese | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 6.40 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.20 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 3.73
Red cards0.17league 0.20
Cards 5+64%league 35%
Fouls25.0league 25.1
Penalties0.18league 0.30
Home wins38%league 40%
Udinese8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W7 Jan 26A · Torino2–11
- L8 Dec 25H · Genoa1–21
- D28 Apr 25H · Bologna0–03
- W1 Mar 25H · Parma1–01
- L20 Jan 24H · AC Milan2–36
ComoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese30 games · scored 35 · conceded 42
4
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
6
31-45
8
8
46-60
7
7
61-75
5
9
76-90
Como29 games · scored 51 · conceded 21
10
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
7
6
46-60
10
3
61-75
12
4
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Como10 games · scored 25 · conceded 6
5
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
