Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Udinese were clear favourites.
Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Udinese. Udinese had 8.2 days of rest, Cremonese 7.2 and had to travel 271 km.
Away travel271 kmRest days8.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Udinese65%
Draw21%
Cremonese13%
Udinese61%
Draw22%
Cremonese16%
Udinese65%
Draw22%
Cremonese13%
Udinese58%
Draw24%
Cremonese18%
Udinese68%
Draw19%
Cremonese13%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 56
Team strength
Udinese
Cremonese
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
22
AttackIn forecast
16
18
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseCremonese
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.28
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
75%
Scored inContext
53%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
11.19
ShotsContext
8.81
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.37
34%
On target shareContext
37%
6.76
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
58%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.08
13.03
Shots allowedContext
15.17
4.12
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.38
3.67
BlocksContext
4.44
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.91
66%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
360
PassesContext
381
291
Accurate passesContext
303
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.36
FoulsContext
13.33
11.44
Fouls sufferedContext
12.47
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
70%
Scored inContext
60%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
9.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
42%
On target shareContext
39%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
66%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.29
15.80
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
4.60
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
75%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
371
PassesContext
415
309
Accurate passesContext
346
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.30
FoulsContext
14.50
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,663 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Cremonese
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel271 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 9 May | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 271 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,663 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
38L. Miller
20Juan Arizala
9K. Davis
18A. Buksa
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
3G. Pezzella
5S. Luperto
15M. Bianchetti
24F. Terracciano
4T. Barbieri
29Y. Maleh
33A. Grassi
2M. Thorsby
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Cremonese-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.28points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.11
Cremonese · Away
0.83points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-11
- Scored
- 0.72
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Torino | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lazio | D 3–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | W 3–0 AL 0–3 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Como | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genoa | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Juventus | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A |
| Bologna | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 3–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 49 of 105 · 1.40 per game | 30 of 105 · 0.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Udinese wins2 draws0 Cremonese wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 20 Oct 2025Cremonese1–1Udinese
- 23 Apr 2023Udinese3–0Cremonese
- 30 Oct 2022Cremonese0–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.28 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.31 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 44% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 42% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 47% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Udinese | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.59 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 6.09 | |
| Match total | 9.24 | 9.53 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 16/34 | 59% 20/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 14/34 | 41% 14/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 13/34 | 26% 9/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 1.58 | |
| Match total | 3.64 | 3.41 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 18/36 | 39% 14/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 11/36 | 22% 8/36 | |
| Udinese | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.22 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.00 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.68
Red cards0.14league 0.19
Cards 5+32%league 34%
Fouls23.8league 24.7
Penalties0.21league 0.28
Home wins39%league 39%
Udinese7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds2
- W26 Jan 26A · Verona3–10
- W9 Dec 24A · Monza2–12
- W25 Oct 24H · Cagliari2–02
- D2 Mar 24H · Salernitana1–16
- D17 Dec 23H · Sassuolo2–24
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D16 Oct 22A · Spezia2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese36 games · scored 45 · conceded 46
4
6
0-15
7
6
16-30
8
6
31-45
10
10
46-60
8
7
61-75
8
11
76-90
Cremonese36 games · scored 30 · conceded 53
3
9
0-15
3
7
16-30
5
11
31-45
7
9
46-60
3
9
61-75
9
8
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
