Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Udinese were slight favourites.
Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 15). Udinese had 2.8 days of rest, Pisa 4 and had to travel 345 km.
Away travel345 kmRest days2.8 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 3
Udinese55%
Draw26%
Pisa19%
Udinese57%
Draw24%
Pisa19%
Udinese55%
Draw26%
Pisa19%
Udinese48%
Draw28%
Pisa24%
Udinese57%
Draw24%
Pisa19%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 48
Team strength
Udinese
Pisa
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
22
AttackIn forecast
15
18
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdinesePisa
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.68
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
79%
Scored inContext
42%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.68
ShotsContext
9.79
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.87
32%
On target shareContext
23%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
58%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.16
Shots allowedContext
15.26
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
3.32
BlocksContext
4.33
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
61%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
355
PassesContext
305
286
Accurate passesContext
232
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.47
FoulsContext
12.68
11.79
Fouls sufferedContext
12.26
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.30
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
32%
On target shareContext
24%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
60%
Box shareContext
77%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.70
Shots allowedContext
14.60
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.90
BlocksContext
4.00
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
55%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
341
PassesContext
299
268
Accurate passesContext
224
79%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.40
FoulsContext
11.60
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,537 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Pisa
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel345 km280 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 345 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,537 km | 280 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
11H. Kamara
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
13N. Bertola
32J. Ekkelenkamp
8J. Karlström
38L. Miller
59A. Zanoli
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Pisa
Confirmed XI
22S. Scuffet(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
20M. Aebischer
6M. Marin
7M. Léris
10M. Tramoni
9H. Meister
32S. Moreo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Pisa+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.44
Pisa · Away
0.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-6-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Como | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Lazio | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fiorentina | L 1–5 A | D 0–0 H |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Juventus | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Lecce | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Inter | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Verona | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 22 of 54 · 1.22 per game | 12 of 54 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Udinese wins0 draws0 Pisa wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 14 Sep 2025Pisa0–1Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 0.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.16 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 37% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 37% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 58% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Udinese | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.61 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 8.72 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 39% 7/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 6/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 22% 4/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.58 | 1.68 | |
| Match total | 3.53 | 3.79 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 10/19 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 5/19 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Udinese | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 8.66 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.30 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.48league 3.87
Red cards0.29league 0.16
Cards 5+77%league 37%
Fouls27.9league 25.8
Penalties0.15league 0.31
Home wins38%league 37%
Udinese3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.3.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 May 25A · Juventus0–23
- L15 Mar 25H · Verona0–15
- L12 Nov 22A · Napoli2–33
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese19 games · scored 20 · conceded 30
2
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
5
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Pisa19 games · scored 13 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
7
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
