Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Udinese were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Udinese. Udinese had 6.9 days of rest, Sassuolo 6.8 and had to travel 254 km.
Away travel254 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Udinese46%
Draw28%
Sassuolo25%
Udinese47%
Draw26%
Sassuolo27%
Udinese47%
Draw28%
Sassuolo25%
Udinese39%
Draw29%
Sassuolo31%
Udinese48%
Draw26%
Sassuolo26%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaria Sole Ferrieri Caputi
Team strength
Udinese
Sassuolo
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
22
AttackIn forecast
41
18
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseSassuolo
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
79%
Scored inContext
63%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.33
ShotsContext
10.83
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.79
31%
On target shareContext
35%
6.45
Shots in the boxContext
6.92
54%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.08
Shots allowedContext
13.96
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.21
3.38
BlocksContext
3.25
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.95
64%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
353
PassesContext
386
282
Accurate passesContext
317
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.83
FoulsContext
11.88
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
80%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.20
ShotsContext
10.60
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
33%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
49%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.22
12.20
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.50
BlocksContext
3.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
62%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
343
PassesContext
393
269
Accurate passesContext
323
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.71
14.10
FoulsContext
11.10
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,501 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Sassuolo
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel254 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 254 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,501 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
33J. Zemura
31T. Kristensen
28O. Solet
13N. Bertola
14A. Atta
38L. Miller
8J. Karlström
32J. Ekkelenkamp
10N. Zaniolo
15V. Bayo
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
35L. Lipani
42K. Thorstvedt
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sassuolo+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Sassuolo · Away
1.25points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-5
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Como | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lazio | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Fiorentina | L 1–5 A | W 3–1 H |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atalanta | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Juventus | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 32 of 69 · 1.39 per game | 26 of 69 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Udinese wins4 draws1 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.86 – 1.71
Over 2.571%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Sep 2025Sassuolo3–1Udinese
- 1 Apr 2024Sassuolo1–1Udinese
- 17 Dec 2023Udinese2–2Sassuolo
- 12 Feb 2023Udinese2–2Sassuolo
- 11 Sep 2022Sassuolo1–3Udinese
- 7 May 2022Sassuolo1–1Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.54 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 46% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 38% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Udinese | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.55 | 3.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.41 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.96 | 7.92 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 13% 3/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 4.26 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 7/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Udinese | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 8.00 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Udinese24 games · scored 27 · conceded 36
2
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
5
31-45
7
6
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
Sassuolo24 games · scored 27 · conceded 34
7
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
8
46-60
8
4
61-75
4
7
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
