Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
10th · 11 pts · 9 played
DLWLD
2–2Full time
Bayern München
1st · 27 pts · 9 played
WWWWW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 42). Bayern München usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Union Berlin had 7 days of rest, Bayern München 6.9 and had to travel 505 km.
Away travel505 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union Berlin9%
Draw16%
Bayern München75%
Union Berlin10%
Draw18%
Bayern München72%
Union Berlin9%
Draw16%
Bayern München75%
Union Berlin6%
Draw13%
Bayern München81%
Union Berlin10%
Draw18%
Bayern München72%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 18
Team strength
Union BerlinBayern München
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
93
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
42
AttackIn forecast
96
41
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinBayern München
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.44
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
2.38
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.64
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+1.29
44%
Scored inContext
100%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
11.89
ShotsContext
18.44
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.22
29%
On target shareContext
45%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
70%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
20%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.56
Shots allowedContext
8.11
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
4.38
BlocksContext
3.29
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.57
69%
Save rateContext
79%
33%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
275
PassesContext
658
194
Accurate passesContext
592
70%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.28
14.00
FoulsContext
10.89
11.44
Fouls sufferedContext
9.78
2.78
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
2.48
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.82
50%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.20
ShotsContext
18.20
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.00
30%
On target shareContext
44%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
12.40
69%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
15.00
Shots allowedContext
8.70
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
4.33
BlocksContext
2.63
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
69%
Save rateContext
83%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
283
PassesContext
624
201
Accurate passesContext
559
71%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.13
13.10
FoulsContext
10.60
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
7.40
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel505 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 505 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
15T. Rothe
13A. Schäfer
8R. Khedira
6A. Kemlein
19J. Haberer
10Ilyas Ansah
7O. Burke
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
44J. Stanišić
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
27K. Laimer
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
7S. Gnabry
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bayern München-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
Bayern München · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 H | W 5–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 4–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–4 H | W 4–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 21 · 1.00 per game | 21 of 21 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Union Berlin wins2 draws6 Bayern München wins
Goals per game0.63 – 2.88
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 15 Mar 2025Union Berlin1–1Bayern München
- 2 Nov 2024Bayern München3–0Union Berlin
- 20 Apr 2024Union Berlin1–5Bayern München
- 24 Jan 2024Bayern München1–0Union Berlin
- 26 Feb 2023Bayern München3–0Union Berlin
- 3 Sep 2022Union Berlin1–1Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 3.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 4.11 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 100% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Union Berlin | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 3.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 4.11 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 100% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.67 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.22 | 4.00 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Union Berlin | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.10 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.20 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.15
Red cards0.28league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 41%
Fouls23.2league 22.5
Penalties0.33league 0.35
Home wins39%league 43%
Union Berlin3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D15 Mar 25H · Bayern München1–11
- W19 Jan 25H · FSV Mainz 052–12
- L21 Dec 24A · Werder Bremen1–42
Bayern München4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25A · FC Augsburg3–24
- D15 Mar 25A · Union Berlin1–12
- W1 Feb 25H · Holstein Kiel4–31
- W27 Oct 24A · VfL Bochum5–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin9 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Bayern München9 games · scored 33 · conceded 4
3
0-15
8
16-30
7
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
61-75
7
3
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 33 · conceded 5
5
0-15
7
1
16-30
8
1
31-45
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
