Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Apr 17 · 16:00 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
First leg2–0 VS— Compare
Antwerp 13th · 7 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel42 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Union St. Gilloise—%
Draw—%
Antwerp—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brussels)

Forecast from 2 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseAntwerp
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 26
62 AttackIn forecast 24
74 DefenceIn forecast 19
73 Form indexContext 9
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Antwerp

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseAntwerp
2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.35
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61
+1.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
88% Scored inContext 75%
63% Clean sheetsContext 13%
16.88 ShotsContext 14.63
7.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
42% On target shareContext 34%
13.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
78% Box shareContext 64%
16% ConversionContext 10%
2.75 OffsidesContext 1.33
11.13 Shots allowedContext 16.25
2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.63
4.13 BlocksContext 4.38
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88
81% Save rateContext 59%
53% PossessionIn forecast 48%
458 PassesContext 393
377 Accurate passesContext 316
82% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.14 Team ratingContext 6.66
11.38 FoulsContext 14.00
11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50
1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.88
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.27
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
90% Scored inContext 70%
60% Clean sheetsContext 30%
17.30 ShotsContext 14.50
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
41% On target shareContext 33%
13.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
75% Box shareContext 63%
13% ConversionContext 10%
2.78 OffsidesContext 1.63
11.90 Shots allowedContext 17.10
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
3.90 BlocksContext 5.10
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
75% Save rateContext 66%
51% PossessionIn forecast 47%
461 PassesContext 387
379 Accurate passesContext 311
82% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.12 Team ratingContext 6.79
11.90 FoulsContext 13.20
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts
Antwerp
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel42 km29 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 0 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -4.8 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KVC Westerlo1–51.0 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–20.7 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Club Brugge KV1–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Standard Liege0–11.1 xPts
  • L30 AugH · St. Truiden1–41.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise Antwerp
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 10 Apr7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 10 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km42 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways84 km29 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic
Antwerp Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KVC Westerlo (A) 1–5, 11 Oct
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
5D. Foulon 3Álvaro Cortés 20R. Van Helden 17S. Renders
48A. Vermeeren 8M. Benítez
7I. Salah 24T. Somers 14Xander Dierickx
9M. Frey

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Antwerp Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
0.25
Antwerp · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentUnion St. GilloiseAntwerp
St. Truiden W 3–0 A L 1–4 H
KVC Westerlo W 5–1 A L 1–5 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Union St. Gilloise wins3 draws0 Antwerp wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.00 Over 2.540% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 0%
  • 20 Sep 2026Antwerp0–2Union St. Gilloise
  • 21 Feb 2026Union St. Gilloise2–1Antwerp
  • 25 Jul 2025Antwerp1–1Union St. Gilloise
  • 17 Mar 2024Antwerp1–1Union St. Gilloise
  • 3 Sep 2023Union St. Gilloise2–2Antwerp

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseAntwerpForecast
Scored per game 2.751.50
Conceded per game 0.502.50
Match goals 3.254.00
Over 1.5 88%88%
Over 2.5 63%75%
Over 3.5 38%50%
Both teams scored 38%63%
Clean sheets 63%13%
Failed to score 13%25%
Games88
Union St. GilloiseAntwerpForecast
Scored per game 2.301.30
Conceded per game 0.702.20
Match goals 3.003.50
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 30%40%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 60%10%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseAntwerpLeague
Corners
Corners won5.884.63
Corners conceded3.255.50
Match total9.1310.1310.01
Over 8.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 9.550% 4/838% 3/8
Over 10.538% 3/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.882.13
Opponent cards1.882.25
Match total3.764.383.36
Over 3.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 4.525% 2/850% 4/8
Union St. GilloiseAntwerpLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.60
Corners conceded3.906.10
Match total8.7010.7010.01
Over 8.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 9.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.002.20
Opponent cards1.902.00
Match total3.904.203.36
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
Antwerp8 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 7 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
KVC Westerlo St. Truiden Apr 1716:00 KV Mechelen RAAL La Louvière Apr 1716:00 Gent Lommel United Apr 1716:00 Standard Liege OH Leuven Apr 1716:00 Charleroi Anderlecht Apr 1716:00 SK Beveren Zulte Waregem Apr 1716:00 Cercle Brugge Kortrijk Apr 1716:00 Genk Club Brugge KV Apr 1716:00 Union St. Gilloise Antwerp Apr 1716:00