Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 33 pts · 14 played
LWWWD
2–0Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 12 pts · 14 played
DDDLL
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 24). Union St. Gilloise had 12.9 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 14 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days12.9 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union St. Gilloise66%
Draw21%
Cercle Brugge14%
Union St. Gilloise66%
Draw21%
Cercle Brugge13%
Union St. Gilloise66%
Draw21%
Cercle Brugge14%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge18%
Union St. Gilloise66%
Draw21%
Cercle Brugge13%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 30
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseCercle Brugge
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
62
AttackIn forecast
24
74
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseCercle Brugge
2.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
0.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
86%
Scored inContext
71%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
15.43
ShotsContext
13.21
5.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
38%
On target shareContext
31%
11.77
Shots in the boxContext
9.71
76%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
3.08
OffsidesContext
2.46
9.00
Shots allowedContext
13.43
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
2.64
BlocksContext
3.08
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
79%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
421
PassesContext
380
345
Accurate passesContext
296
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.50
FoulsContext
10.64
9.07
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
14.10
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
34%
On target shareContext
32%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
71%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.56
11.30
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.60
BlocksContext
3.33
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
61%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
356
PassesContext
396
286
Accurate passesContext
311
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.50
FoulsContext
10.80
8.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 14Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
25A. Khalaili
8A. Zorgane
17R. Schoofs
6K. Van de Perre
27L. Patris
13K. Rodríguez
12P. David
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
3E. Utkus
66C. Ravych
2I. Diakité
15G. Magnée
37E. Diop
6L. Agyekum
28H. Van der Bruggen
7A. Ouattara
9S. Ngoura
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
3.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-0
- Scored
- 2.83
- Conceded
- 0.17
Cercle Brugge · Away
1.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-2
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 4–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | W 3–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| Genk | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Anderlecht | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Standard Liege | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Gent | W 3–2 A | L 2–4 H |
| OH Leuven | W 5–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 33 of 42 · 2.36 per game | 12 of 42 · 0.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws0 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 3 Dec 2023Union St. Gilloise2–1Cercle Brugge
- 24 Sep 2023Cercle Brugge0–2Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.07 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.79 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 64% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.79 | 4.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.93 | 4.85 | |
| Match total | 9.72 | 9.31 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 9/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 7/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 3.29 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 9/14 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.22 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.30 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.37league 3.83
Red cards0.13league 0.22
Cards 5+47%league 42%
Fouls22.4league 23.0
Penalties0.40league 0.28
Home wins43%league 44%
Union St. Gilloise4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W27 Sep 25H · KVC Westerlo2–03
- W25 Feb 24H · Standard Liege2–11
- W31 Jan 24H · RWDM3–22
- W23 Dec 23A · AS Eupen2–11
Cercle Brugge1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D29 Aug 25H · St. Truiden1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise14 games · scored 29 · conceded 8
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
61-75
8
4
76-90
Cercle Brugge14 games · scored 18 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
9
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
