Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 57 pts · 27 played
WWDWD
First leg2–1
2–1Full time
Genk
6th · 38 pts · 27 played
WWWLW
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genk. Union St. Gilloise had 6.2 days of rest, Genk 6.3 and had to travel 82 km.
Away travel82 kmRest days6.2 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 3
Union St. Gilloise47%
Draw26%
Genk27%
Union St. Gilloise54%
Draw25%
Genk21%
Union St. Gilloise47%
Draw26%
Genk27%
Union St. Gilloise40%
Draw27%
Genk34%
Union St. Gilloise47%
Draw26%
Genk27%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 46
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseGenk
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
62
AttackIn forecast
46
74
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseGenk
1.59
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
0.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
81%
Scored inContext
85%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
14.59
ShotsContext
15.37
5.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
36%
On target shareContext
37%
11.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
73%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
3.36
OffsidesContext
2.35
8.15
Shots allowedContext
12.15
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.41
2.40
BlocksContext
3.36
2.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
79%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
428
PassesContext
538
347
Accurate passesContext
465
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.67
FoulsContext
9.96
9.26
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
2.37
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
70%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
15.50
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
32%
On target shareContext
42%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
69%
Box shareContext
74%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
3.86
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.30
Shots allowedContext
12.50
2.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.88
BlocksContext
3.60
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
79%
Save rateContext
80%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
401
PassesContext
477
314
Accurate passesContext
401
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.00
FoulsContext
8.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel82 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 6.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 82 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 96 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
26R. Sykes
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
6K. Van de Perre
8A. Zorgane
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
23B. Zeneli
7M. Fuseini
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
38D. Heymans
24N. Sattlberger
14Y. Sor
20K. Karetsas
10J. Ito
29Robin Mirisola
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
2.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-1-0
- Scored
- 2.15
- Conceded
- 0.31
Genk · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-4
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | L 0–3 HL 1–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A |
| OH Leuven | D 0–0 AW 5–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 54 of 78 · 2.08 per game | 38 of 78 · 1.46 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 21 Sep 2025Genk1–2Union St. Gilloise
- 3 Feb 2024Genk0–1Union St. Gilloise
- 16 Sep 2023Union St. Gilloise0–2Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.59 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 2.15 | 2.93 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 63% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 74% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 15% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.64 | 5.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.64 | 4.19 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 9.81 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 14/25 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 13/25 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 1.37 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.37 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 3.74 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 18/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 18/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 10.10 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 2.50 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.26league 3.86
Red cards0.35league 0.20
Cards 5+67%league 41%
Fouls23.3league 22.7
Penalties0.17league 0.31
Home wins39%league 40%
Union St. Gilloise5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D14 Feb 26A · Standard Liege1–14
- D14 Dec 25A · Charleroi1–12
- D9 Nov 25A · KV Mechelen1–12
- W2 Mar 24A · OH Leuven2–03
- L16 Sep 23H · Genk0–21
Genk5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L26 Dec 25H · Club Brugge KV3–53
- W28 Sep 25A · St. Truiden2–12
- D3 Aug 25H · Antwerp1–10
- D17 Mar 24A · KVC Westerlo1–12
- W16 Sep 23A · Union St. Gilloise2–06
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise27 games · scored 43 · conceded 15
4
4
0-15
5
16-30
8
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
8
61-75
13
5
76-90
Genk27 games · scored 39 · conceded 40
8
9
0-15
7
4
16-30
3
9
31-45
7
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
9
9
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
8
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
