Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 36 pts · 16 played
WWDWL
First leg3–2
1–1Full time
Gent
8th · 22 pts · 16 played
WLDDL
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 36). Union St. Gilloise had 6 days of rest, Gent 6 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw24%
Gent18%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
Gent18%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw24%
Gent18%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Draw26%
Gent24%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
Gent18%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 18
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseGent
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
62
AttackIn forecast
46
74
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseGent
1.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
81%
Scored inContext
81%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
14.94
ShotsContext
13.06
5.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
38%
On target shareContext
34%
12.07
Shots in the boxContext
8.19
77%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
3.08
OffsidesContext
2.18
8.69
Shots allowedContext
13.44
2.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.56
BlocksContext
4.00
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.87
78%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
426
PassesContext
468
347
Accurate passesContext
389
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.63
FoulsContext
10.75
9.06
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
12.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
31%
On target shareContext
33%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
78%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.83
10.60
Shots allowedContext
14.30
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.40
BlocksContext
3.78
1.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
58%
Save rateContext
78%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
372
PassesContext
470
298
Accurate passesContext
393
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.80
FoulsContext
10.70
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel50 km168 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 168 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
26R. Sykes
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
8A. Zorgane
17R. Schoofs
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
13K. Rodríguez
30R. Florucz
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
8M. Skóraś
27T. De Vlieger
6O. Gandelman
18M. Samoise
37A. Kadri
45B. Goore
7A. Kanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
3.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-0
- Scored
- 2.71
- Conceded
- 0.14
Gent · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 H | W 4–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 4–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Charleroi | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Standard Liege | W 3–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 5–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 33 of 45 · 2.20 per game | 22 of 45 · 1.47 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Union St. Gilloise wins2 draws0 Gent wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 9 Aug 2025Gent2–3Union St. Gilloise
- 10 Mar 2024Union St. Gilloise1–1Gent
- 26 Nov 2023Gent1–1Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.94 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 63% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 19% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 9.32 | 9.80 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 9/16 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 9/16 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.07 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 11/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.33 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.30 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.82
Red cards0.06league 0.19
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls23.7league 23.0
Penalties0.17league 0.29
Home wins39%league 42%
Union St. Gilloise1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Oct 25H · Charleroi3–10
Gent2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D27 Jan 24H · KVC Westerlo2–22
- W26 Dec 23A · Kortrijk2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise16 games · scored 31 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
61-75
9
4
76-90
Gent16 games · scored 24 · conceded 24
3
1
0-15
3
6
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
9
5
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
