Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
2nd · 13 pts · 5 played
WDWWW
5–0Full time
Lommel United
11th · 7 pts · 5 played
DLWWL
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Union St. Gilloise. Union St. Gilloise had 7.2 days of rest, Lommel United 8 and had to travel 80 km.
Away travel80 kmRest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Union St. Gilloise65%
Draw20%
Lommel United14%
Union St. Gilloise64%
Draw21%
Lommel United16%
Union St. Gilloise65%
Draw20%
Lommel United14%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
Lommel United19%
Union St. Gilloise65%
Draw20%
Lommel United15%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseLommel United
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
62
AttackIn forecast
32
74
DefenceIn forecast
41
86
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLommel United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseLommel United
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+1.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
60%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.40
ShotsContext
10.00
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
46%
On target shareContext
26%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
76%
Box shareContext
66%
19%
ConversionContext
12%
3.20
OffsidesContext
3.33
11.80
Shots allowedContext
20.80
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.40
BlocksContext
7.80
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
79%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
441
PassesContext
402
361
Accurate passesContext
333
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.10
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.00
FoulsContext
7.20
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.85
Goals minus xGContext
+0.64
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.80
ShotsContext
9.40
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
39%
On target shareContext
34%
12.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
74%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
18%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.60
12.20
Shots allowedContext
18.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.22
BlocksContext
5.70
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
62%
Save rateContext
81%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
459
PassesContext
387
380
Accurate passesContext
309
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.09
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.78
FoulsContext
8.70
12.22
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
WDWWW
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 86 · 13 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Lommel United
DLWWL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel80 km291 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 7 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Lommel United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 4 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 80 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 291 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 3 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
80O. Kričfaluši
29M. Sylla
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
8A. Zorgane
6K. Van de Perre
27L. Patris
23B. Zeneli
9Mateo Biondic
38R. Mofokeng
Lommel United
Confirmed XI
23M. Pieklak(G)
79Sam De Grand
5Dries Wouters
4S. Adewoye
2J. van Duiven
6J. Pelupessy
11S. Appuah
10Tom Reyners
15Lucas Schoofs
7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lommel United
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lommel United+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Lommel United · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | W 3–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| St. Truiden | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 5–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Lommel United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 1.80 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 20% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Lommel United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 1.80 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 20% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Lommel United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 11.00 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Lommel United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 8.10 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 11.40 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.80 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise5 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Lommel United5 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 24 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Lommel United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
