Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union St. Gilloise
2nd · 13 pts · 5 played
WDWWW
5–0Full time
Lommel United
11th · 7 pts · 5 played
DLWWL
Union St. Gilloise64.7%fair odds 1.55
Draw21.3%fair odds 4.69
Lommel United13.9%fair odds 7.17
Expected goals2.03 – 0.83total 2.86
Likeliest score2–011.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lommel United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union St. Gilloise ↓ · Lommel United → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union St. Gilloise goals, columns Lommel United goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.8%8.49
- 1–011.1%9.01
- 1–110.2%9.83
- 2–19.8%10.21
- 3–08.0%12.56
- 3–16.6%15.10
- 0–06.2%16.03
- 0–14.3%23.52
- 2–24.1%24.54
- 4–04.0%24.76
Winning margin
20.7%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 4.84
20.0%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 5.01
24.1%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 4.15
21.3%
Draw
fair 4.69
9.6%
Lommel United by 1
fair 10.45
3.4%
Lommel United by 2
fair 29.78
1.0%
Lommel United by 3+
fair 98.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Union St. Gilloise goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
Lommel United goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise win | 64.7% | 65.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 21.3% | 21.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Lommel United win | 13.9% | 14.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 56.0% | -1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.6% | 50.7% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 2.03 | 2.07 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Lommel United | 0.83 | 0.86 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union St. Gilloise win64.7%1.55
- Draw21.3%4.69
- Lommel United win13.9%7.17
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw86.1%1.16
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or Lommel United78.7%1.27
- Double chance Lommel United or draw35.3%2.83
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise82.3%1.22
- Draw no bet Lommel United17.7%5.64
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.4%1.28
- Over 2.554.5%1.84
- Over 3.532.1%3.11
- Over 4.516.2%6.18
- Under 1.521.6%4.63
- Under 2.545.5%2.20
- Under 3.567.9%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes49.6%2.02
- No50.4%1.98
- Yes and over 2.539.4%2.54
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes27.4%3.65
- Draw and yes15.1%6.62
- Lommel United win and yes7.0%14.24
Team goals
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.586.8%1.15
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.560.2%1.66
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.533.1%3.02
- Lommel United over 0.556.5%1.77
- Lommel United over 1.520.3%4.93
- Lommel United over 2.55.2%19.19
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet43.5%2.30
- Lommel United clean sheet13.2%7.60
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil37.3%2.68
- Lommel United win to nil6.9%14.46
Handicap
- Union St. Gilloise −1.540.6%2.46
- Union St. Gilloise −2.520.7%4.84
- Lommel United +1.559.4%1.68
- Lommel United +2.579.3%1.26
- Lommel United −1.54.4%22.88
- Union St. Gilloise +1.595.6%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored48
Favourite won62.5%
Avg chance given to result45.2%
1X2 Brier0.502
Over 2.5 called right58.3%
BTTS called right43.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.5% | 20.0% |
| 40–50% | 21 | 45.6% | 47.6% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.6% | 84.6% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 64.8% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 24 of 48 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5167 | 0.5301 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.7% | 42.9% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 24 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 48 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.