Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 36). Utrecht had 2.7 days of rest, Ajax 7.8 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days2.7 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Utrecht36%
Draw27%
Ajax37%
Utrecht36%
Draw27%
Ajax36%
Utrecht36%
Draw27%
Ajax37%
Utrecht29%
Draw26%
Ajax45%
Utrecht36%
Draw27%
Ajax36%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 93
Team strength
Utrecht
Ajax
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
32
AttackIn forecast
66
31
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtAjax
1.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
82%
Scored inContext
91%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
14.45
ShotsContext
15.09
5.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.36
36%
On target shareContext
42%
9.73
Shots in the boxContext
11.36
66%
Box shareContext
75%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.82
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.09
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.22
BlocksContext
4.18
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
69%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
425
PassesContext
517
344
Accurate passesContext
448
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.04
10.91
FoulsContext
11.64
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.09
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
60%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.20
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
30%
On target shareContext
36%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
63%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.40
13.00
Shots allowedContext
15.10
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
4.75
BlocksContext
4.90
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
70%
Save rateContext
59%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
401
PassesContext
450
322
Accurate passesContext
382
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.90
FoulsContext
10.80
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km131 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Ajax
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel35 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 131 km | 275 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 13.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
40M. Didden
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
15A. Blake
20D. de Wit
22Miguel Rodríguez
91S. Haller
Ajax
Confirmed XI
22R. Pasveer(G)
41G. Alders
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
2Lucas Rosa
8K. Taylor
6Y. Regeer
11M. Godts
10O. Gloukh
17O. Edvardsen
25W. Weghorst
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Ajax+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.83
Ajax · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-0
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 1–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Utrecht wins1 draws0 Ajax wins
Goals per game3.33 – 1.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 20 Apr 2025Utrecht4–0Ajax
- 4 Dec 2024Ajax2–2Utrecht
- 22 Oct 2023Utrecht4–3Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.82 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 3.18 | 3.27 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 55% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 73% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Utrecht | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.73 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.09 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 1.45 | |
| Match total | 2.91 | 3.45 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 4/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 9% 1/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Utrecht | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.63 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.20 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 93 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 3.38
Red cards0.13league 0.23
Cards 5+27%league 34%
Fouls21.6league 22.2
Penalties0.27league 0.30
Home wins42%league 49%
Utrecht3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L1 Dec 24H · PSV Eindhoven2–52
- W29 Sep 24A · AZ Alkmaar2–12
- D17 Aug 24A · Heerenveen1–12
Ajax9 with this referee
Record5-1-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
- D17 Aug 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
- W18 May 25H · Twente2–00
- W6 Apr 25H · NAC Breda3–11
- W2 Feb 25H · Feyenoord2–13
- W30 Oct 24A · Feyenoord2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht11 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Ajax11 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 12 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
