Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Utrecht
10th · 31 pts · 24 played
DLWWD
First leg1–4
2–0Full time
AZ Alkmaar
6th · 39 pts · 24 played
WLDWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Utrecht. Utrecht had 7.1 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 7 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Utrecht37%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar36%
Utrecht36%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar36%
Utrecht37%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar36%
Utrecht30%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar43%
Utrecht37%
Draw28%
AZ Alkmaar35%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 31
Team strength
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
32
AttackIn forecast
52
31
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
83%
Scored inContext
96%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
14.25
ShotsContext
15.33
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
33%
On target shareContext
37%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
66%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.73
11.88
Shots allowedContext
12.21
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
3.85
BlocksContext
3.48
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
70%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
400
PassesContext
450
320
Accurate passesContext
370
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.75
FoulsContext
10.25
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.88
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.50
ShotsContext
12.60
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
32%
On target shareContext
37%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
64%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.60
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
2.40
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
66%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
407
PassesContext
470
328
Accurate passesContext
384
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.90
FoulsContext
11.80
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel65 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
40M. Didden
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
10Y. Cathline
20D. de Wit
77Ángel Alarcón
18A. Stepanov
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
23B. van Duijl
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
34M. de Wit
6P. Koopmeiners
20Kasper Boogaard
17I. Jensen
10S. Mijnans
24A. Oufkir
35M. Meerdink
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- AZ Alkmaar-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
1.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-4
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.00
AZ Alkmaar · Away
1.58points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-5
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 H | L 1–5 H |
| NAC Breda | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Telstar | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Ajax | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | L 3–4 A |
| Excelsior | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 31 of 69 · 1.35 per game | 36 of 69 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Utrecht wins2 draws1 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 26 Oct 2025AZ Alkmaar4–1Utrecht
- 18 Jan 2025Utrecht0–0AZ Alkmaar
- 29 Sep 2024AZ Alkmaar1–2Utrecht
- 3 Dec 2023Utrecht1–1AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 3.33 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 75% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 4% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.81 | 5.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 9.79 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 12/21 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.42 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 3.71 | 3.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 11/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 5/24 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.01 | 7.90 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.90 | 3.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.23league 3.29
Red cards0.16league 0.19
Cards 5+29%league 30%
Fouls21.8league 21.6
Penalties0.23league 0.25
Home wins32%league 45%
UtrechtNo previous matches with this referee.
AZ Alkmaar4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Sep 25H · PEC Zwolle2–21
- D1 Apr 25H · Waalwijk2–20
- L26 Jan 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–21
- W30 Aug 24A · Waalwijk3–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht24 games · scored 36 · conceded 31
3
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
8
4
31-45
9
7
46-60
6
3
61-75
7
8
76-90
AZ Alkmaar24 games · scored 42 · conceded 38
5
8
0-15
6
4
16-30
10
7
31-45
5
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
10
10
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
5
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
