Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Utrecht. Utrecht had 6.2 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 6.9 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days6.2 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Utrecht42%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar34%
Utrecht40%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar34%
Utrecht42%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar34%
Utrecht34%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar41%
Utrecht42%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar33%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 121
Team strength
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
32
AttackIn forecast
52
31
DefenceIn forecast
49
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Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
—
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.10
ShotsContext
14.40
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
43%
On target shareContext
35%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
70%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.78
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.00
BlocksContext
3.44
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
70%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
361
PassesContext
453
288
Accurate passesContext
380
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.00
FoulsContext
9.80
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
L
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km318 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 0 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
- L9 AugA · Groningen1–21.4 xPts
AZ Alkmaar
W
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel65 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 57 · 3 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
- W8 AugH · ADO Den Haag2–02.1 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Aug | 6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 318 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
92A. Zagré
44M. Eerdhuijzen
2S. Horemans
23N. Vesterlund
6G. Offerhaus
53Ferdinand Pohl
10Y. Cathline
20D. de Wit
11Ángel Alarcón
18A. Stepanov
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez
16L. Schouten
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
6P. Koopmeiners
21D. Kwakman
11Ro-Zangelo Daal
10K. Smit
7Weslley Patati
35M. Meerdink
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
No home games yet this season.
AZ Alkmaar · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Utrecht wins2 draws1 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 1 Mar 2026Utrecht2–0AZ Alkmaar
- 26 Oct 2025AZ Alkmaar4–1Utrecht
- 18 Jan 2025Utrecht0–0AZ Alkmaar
- 29 Sep 2024AZ Alkmaar1–2Utrecht
- 3 Dec 2023Utrecht1–1AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 16.00 | 11.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 11.10 | 11.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 121 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.23league 2.36
Red cards0.12league 0.09
Cards 5+26%league 9%
Fouls21.5league 21.7
Penalties0.31league 0.00
Home wins45%league 36%
Utrecht6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W11 Apr 26H · Telstar4–12
- W11 Feb 26A · NEC Nijmegen3–12
- W9 Nov 25H · Ajax2–11
- L1 Dec 24H · PSV Eindhoven2–52
- W29 Sep 24A · AZ Alkmaar2–12
AZ Alkmaar9 with this referee
Record2-4-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 2
- D8 Feb 26H · Ajax1–11
- W2 Nov 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–01
- D21 Sep 25H · Feyenoord3–34
- D11 Jan 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–22
- L29 Sep 24H · Utrecht1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
AZ Alkmaar1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
6
46-60
4
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
8
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
