Utrecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Utrecht40.9%fair odds 2.44
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.84
AZ Alkmaar33.0%fair odds 3.03
Expected goals1.52 – 1.35total 2.87
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AZ Alkmaar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Utrecht ↓ · AZ Alkmaar → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Utrecht goals, columns AZ Alkmaar goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.17
- 2–18.9%11.29
- 1–08.0%12.50
- 1–27.8%12.76
- 0–17.0%14.27
- 2–06.6%15.22
- 0–06.3%15.95
- 2–26.0%16.74
- 0–25.1%19.46
- 3–14.5%22.21
Winning margin
8.1%
Utrecht by 3+
fair 12.41
12.4%
Utrecht by 2
fair 8.06
20.5%
Utrecht by 1
fair 4.88
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.84
18.0%
AZ Alkmaar by 1
fair 5.54
9.7%
AZ Alkmaar by 2
fair 10.31
5.3%
AZ Alkmaar by 3+
fair 18.87
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Utrecht goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
AZ Alkmaar goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht win | 40.9% | 41.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.0% | +0.1 pp |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 33.0% | 32.5% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 55.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.5% | 58.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Utrecht | 1.52 | 1.54 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals AZ Alkmaar | 1.35 | 1.34 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Utrecht win40.9%2.44
- Draw26.0%3.84
- AZ Alkmaar win33.0%3.03
- Double chance Utrecht or draw67.0%1.49
- Double chance Utrecht or AZ Alkmaar74.0%1.35
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw59.1%1.69
- Draw no bet Utrecht55.3%1.81
- Draw no bet AZ Alkmaar44.7%2.24
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.7%1.27
- Over 2.554.8%1.83
- Over 3.532.4%3.08
- Over 4.516.4%6.10
- Under 1.521.3%4.70
- Under 2.545.2%2.21
- Under 3.567.6%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes58.5%1.71
- No41.5%2.41
- Yes and over 2.546.3%2.16
- Utrecht win and yes21.2%4.71
- Draw and yes19.8%5.06
- AZ Alkmaar win and yes17.5%5.70
Team goals
- Utrecht over 0.578.2%1.28
- Utrecht over 1.545.0%2.22
- Utrecht over 2.519.7%5.07
- AZ Alkmaar over 0.574.0%1.35
- AZ Alkmaar over 1.539.0%2.56
- AZ Alkmaar over 2.515.4%6.49
- Utrecht clean sheet26.0%3.85
- AZ Alkmaar clean sheet21.8%4.59
- Utrecht win to nil19.7%5.08
- AZ Alkmaar win to nil15.5%6.45
Handicap
- Utrecht −1.520.5%4.89
- Utrecht −2.58.1%12.41
- AZ Alkmaar +1.579.5%1.26
- AZ Alkmaar +2.591.9%1.09
- AZ Alkmaar −1.515.0%6.67
- Utrecht +1.585.0%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won54.5%
Avg chance given to result39.9%
1X2 Brier0.634
Over 2.5 called right63.6%
BTTS called right45.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.7% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 1 | 47.6% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 56.6% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.