Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were clear favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 13). Absences weigh more on Utrecht. Utrecht had 13.2 days of rest, FC Volendam 14 and had to travel 45 km.
Away travel45 kmRest days13.2 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Utrecht62%
Draw22%
FC Volendam16%
Utrecht63%
Draw22%
FC Volendam15%
Utrecht64%
Draw21%
FC Volendam15%
Utrecht54%
Draw24%
FC Volendam21%
Utrecht61%
Draw23%
FC Volendam17%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 26
Team strength
Utrecht
FC Volendam
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
32
AttackIn forecast
14
31
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtFC Volendam
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.88
ShotsContext
11.38
5.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
31%
9.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.13
63%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.57
11.88
Shots allowedContext
16.25
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.63
3.86
BlocksContext
4.25
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
68%
Save rateContext
76%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
429
PassesContext
351
350
Accurate passesContext
278
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.25
FoulsContext
10.63
12.38
Fouls sufferedContext
12.38
1.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.60
ShotsContext
10.70
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
40%
On target shareContext
32%
7.38
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
59%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.88
10.90
Shots allowedContext
19.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
4.11
BlocksContext
5.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.90
70%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
421
PassesContext
326
337
Accurate passesContext
250
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.30
FoulsContext
10.20
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel45 km351 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 45 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 96 km | 351 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
15A. Blake
9D. Min
26M. Jonathans
91S. Haller
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
18N. Bukala
8G. Yah
7O. Kökçü
40R. van Cruijsen
10B. Kuwas
9H. Veerman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-2.4 pp
- Draw+0.9 pp
- FC Volendam+1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
FC Volendam · Away
0.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Excelsior | W 4–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Utrecht wins0 draws1 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 4 Feb 2024Utrecht4–2FC Volendam
- 6 Oct 2023FC Volendam1–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.75 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Utrecht | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.75 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 75% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 9.75 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 3.26 | 3.63 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Utrecht | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.40 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.60 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.42league 3.53
Red cards0.35league 0.23
Cards 5+19%league 37%
Fouls18.2league 22.2
Penalties0.19league 0.23
Home wins42%league 49%
Utrecht1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L15 Mar 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–10
FC Volendam3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 Feb 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–52
- L7 Dec 23A · Feyenoord1–31
- L2 Nov 23A · Ajax0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht8 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
FC Volendam8 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
3
7
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
