Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Utrecht
7th · 50 pts · 33 played
LWLWW
First leg0–1
2–0Full time
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 39 pts · 33 played
LDLLW
Our take
Utrecht were clear favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Utrecht. Utrecht had 6.9 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 6.9 and had to travel 132 km.
Away travel132 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Utrecht63%
Draw20%
Fortuna Sittard17%
Utrecht58%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard18%
Utrecht63%
Draw20%
Fortuna Sittard17%
Utrecht55%
Draw22%
Fortuna Sittard22%
Utrecht63%
Draw20%
Fortuna Sittard17%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 31
Team strength
UtrechtFortuna Sittard
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
32
AttackIn forecast
19
31
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtFortuna Sittard
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.48
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.85
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
82%
Scored inContext
88%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
14.48
ShotsContext
12.42
5.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.59
36%
On target shareContext
36%
9.79
Shots in the boxContext
7.97
67%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.48
OffsidesContext
2.04
12.00
Shots allowedContext
14.21
4.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.48
3.52
BlocksContext
3.84
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.81
72%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
389
PassesContext
357
309
Accurate passesContext
273
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.61
FoulsContext
11.97
10.52
Fouls sufferedContext
11.21
1.42
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.70
ShotsContext
12.20
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
39%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
71%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.13
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.57
BlocksContext
3.30
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
77%
Save rateContext
61%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
365
PassesContext
335
287
Accurate passesContext
250
79%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.30
FoulsContext
9.40
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km70 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel132 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 132 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 70 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 84 | 83.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
44M. Eerdhuijzen
3M. van der Hoorn
23N. Vesterlund
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
10Y. Cathline
20D. de Wit
11K. Karlsson
91S. Haller
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
23P. Brittijn
28J. Hubner
6S. van Ottele
8J. Dahlhaus
70L. Duijvestijn
5Y. Oukili
21N. Kasanwirjo
7K. Peterson
9K. Sierhuis
18D. Limnios
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
1.88points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-4
- Scored
- 1.81
- Conceded
- 0.81
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-10
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Excelsior | L 0–5 AW 4–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Telstar | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–4 HW 3–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–4 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Twente | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Heracles | D 0–0 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–0 HL 1–4 A | L 0–2 AW 4–3 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 50 of 96 · 1.56 per game | 36 of 96 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Utrecht wins2 draws2 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets60% · 60%
- 20 Sep 2025Fortuna Sittard1–0Utrecht
- 18 May 2025Fortuna Sittard0–0Utrecht
- 22 Dec 2024Utrecht2–5Fortuna Sittard
- 11 Feb 2024Utrecht4–0Fortuna Sittard
- 28 Oct 2023Fortuna Sittard0–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 1.48 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.85 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.33 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 70% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 79% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 12% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.40 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.07 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 9.64 | 11.26 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 19/30 | 80% 24/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 13/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.48 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 1.36 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 14/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 15% 5/33 | 30% 10/33 | |
| Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 10.66 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.80 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.10league 3.11
Red cards0.19league 0.17
Cards 5+32%league 26%
Fouls21.5league 21.2
Penalties0.26league 0.21
Home wins45%league 45%
Utrecht2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Aug 24A · NAC Breda2–12
- L20 Aug 23H · Heerenveen0–20
Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Mar 26H · Twente1–22
- W25 Jan 26A · Groningen2–12
- W4 Oct 25H · FC Volendam1–01
- L29 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht33 games · scored 53 · conceded 42
7
6
0-15
4
5
16-30
11
5
31-45
9
11
46-60
9
4
61-75
13
11
76-90
Fortuna Sittard33 games · scored 49 · conceded 61
10
11
0-15
5
11
16-30
10
8
31-45
8
8
46-60
6
8
61-75
10
15
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
