Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GO Ahead Eagles. Utrecht had 9.1 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 9.8 and had to travel 73 km.
Away travel73 kmRest days9.1 · 9.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Utrecht44%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles33%
Utrecht48%
Draw25%
GO Ahead Eagles27%
Utrecht46%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles31%
Utrecht36%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles40%
Utrecht45%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles32%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 39
Team strength
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
32
AttackIn forecast
29
31
DefenceIn forecast
17
14
Form indexContext
50
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtGO Ahead Eagles
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.75
3.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
2.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+1.10
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.75
ShotsContext
13.75
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
36%
On target shareContext
46%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
74%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
20%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
21.00
Shots allowedContext
19.00
8.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
5.00
BlocksContext
5.75
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
52%
Save rateContext
53%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
340
PassesContext
469
263
Accurate passesContext
389
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.42
Team ratingContext
6.81
18.50
FoulsContext
7.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.50
ShotsContext
12.10
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
35%
On target shareContext
42%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
69%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.71
15.90
Shots allowedContext
22.10
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.30
BlocksContext
7.10
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
61%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
370
PassesContext
400
301
Accurate passesContext
320
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.80
FoulsContext
8.00
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
LLDL
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · -3.9 vs expected
GO Ahead Eagles
WDWL
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel73 km209 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 9.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 73 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 209 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
5N. Panagiotou
3M. Didden
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
34D. van den Berg
6G. Offerhaus
11Ángel Alarcón
10Y. Cathline
9A. Stepanov
20D. de Wit
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
1C. Haug(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
10S. Tengstedt
9S. Sigurðarson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-1.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 H | L 2–5 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Utrecht wins3 draws0 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 22 Mar 2026Utrecht2–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 30 Nov 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–2Utrecht
- 6 Apr 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–2Utrecht
- 15 Dec 2024Utrecht3–3GO Ahead Eagles
- 10 Dec 2023GO Ahead Eagles0–2Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 5.25 | 5.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.70 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 0.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Utrecht | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 12.10 | 10.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 1.90 | 2.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.28league 2.61
Red cards0.28league 0.07
Cards 5+15%league 15%
Fouls18.5league 21.0
Penalties0.28league 0.22
Home wins41%league 24%
Utrecht3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L8 Feb 26H · Feyenoord0–13
- W18 Oct 25H · FC Volendam3–11
- L15 Mar 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–10
GO Ahead Eagles2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L10 May 26H · PSV Eindhoven1–40
- L19 Oct 24H · Feyenoord1–51
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht4 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles4 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 24
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
9
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
