Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 23). Utrecht had 14 days of rest, Groningen 15.8 and had to travel 159 km.
Away travel159 kmRest days14 · 15.8Matches / 14d1 · 0
Utrecht60%
Draw23%
Groningen17%
Utrecht59%
Draw23%
Groningen18%
Utrecht60%
Draw23%
Groningen17%
Utrecht52%
Draw25%
Groningen23%
Utrecht59%
Draw23%
Groningen18%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.4
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 33
Team strength
Utrecht
Groningen
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
32
AttackIn forecast
41
31
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtGroningen
2.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+1.26
Goals minus xGContext
+1.13
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
17.25
ShotsContext
13.00
7.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
42%
On target shareContext
46%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
66%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.25
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
3.25
BlocksContext
4.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
79%
Save rateContext
53%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
422
PassesContext
366
345
Accurate passesContext
280
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.22
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.25
FoulsContext
11.25
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.96
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.50
ShotsContext
12.70
6.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
39%
On target shareContext
43%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
63%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.20
10.13
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.50
BlocksContext
2.60
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
80%
Save rateContext
58%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
411
PassesContext
389
334
Accurate passesContext
307
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.20
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.13
FoulsContext
10.70
11.13
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km162 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Groningen
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel159 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 15.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 159 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 162 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
2S. Horemans
3M. van der Hoorn
24N. Viergever
16S. El Karouani
6D. van den Berg
27A. Engwanda
21G. Zechiël
22Miguel Rodríguez
9D. Min
15A. Blake
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
5M. Rente
3T. Blokzijl
4D. Janse
43M. Peersman
8T. de Jonge
6S. Resink
17D. van der Werff
10Y. Taha
14J. Schreuders
26T. van Bergen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Groningen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Groningen · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Utrecht wins0 draws0 Groningen wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 13 Apr 2025Utrecht3–1Groningen
- 20 Oct 2024Groningen0–1Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.75 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.50 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Utrecht | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.75 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.50 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.25 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.75 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Utrecht | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.57 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 8.20 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.30league 3.45
Red cards0.09league 0.23
Cards 5+18%league 38%
Fouls18.7league 22.7
Penalties0.15league 0.18
Home wins58%league 50%
Utrecht3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 May 25A · Twente0–22
- W18 Feb 24A · Twente1–01
- D12 Nov 23H · Excelsior2–21
Groningen3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L2 Apr 25A · Feyenoord1–42
- W30 Nov 24H · Willem II2–01
- W9 Aug 24H · NAC Breda4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht4 games · scored 11 · conceded 3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Groningen4 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
31-45
4
46-60
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
3
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
