Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Utrecht. Utrecht had 2.7 days of rest, Heerenveen 7 and had to travel 111 km.
Away travel111 kmRest days2.7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Utrecht58%
Draw23%
Heerenveen19%
Utrecht58%
Draw23%
Heerenveen18%
Utrecht59%
Draw23%
Heerenveen18%
Utrecht50%
Draw25%
Heerenveen25%
Utrecht57%
Draw24%
Heerenveen19%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 27
Team strength
Utrecht
Heerenveen
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
32
AttackIn forecast
36
31
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtHeerenveen
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
-0.80
67%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.00
ShotsContext
16.17
6.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
39%
On target shareContext
30%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.17
66%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.67
Shots allowedContext
8.83
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.40
BlocksContext
2.33
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
439
PassesContext
413
358
Accurate passesContext
321
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.85
8.83
FoulsContext
10.33
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
1.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.64
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.00
ShotsContext
14.20
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
37%
On target shareContext
32%
10.14
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
66%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.22
Shots allowedContext
9.30
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.63
BlocksContext
2.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
77%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
419
PassesContext
399
337
Accurate passesContext
314
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.33
FoulsContext
11.60
12.56
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km264 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Heerenveen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel111 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 111 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 264 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
44M. Eerdhuijzen
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
55D. Murkin
22Miguel Rodríguez
23N. Vesterlund
91S. Haller
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
6J. van Overeem
45O. Braude
8L. Brouwers
10R. Meerveld
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
9D. Vente
20J. Trenskow
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Heerenveen+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Heerenveen · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Utrecht wins1 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 30 Mar 2025Utrecht2–0Heerenveen
- 17 Aug 2024Heerenveen1–1Utrecht
- 20 Aug 2023Utrecht0–2Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 83% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Utrecht | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 3.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 83% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 17% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.67 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.17 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 4.50 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Utrecht | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 9.20 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.80 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.55
Red cards0.30league 0.22
Cards 5+30%league 40%
Fouls23.1league 22.5
Penalties0.41league 0.20
Home wins48%league 50%
Utrecht2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L22 Dec 24H · Fortuna Sittard2–54
- W5 Oct 24H · Waalwijk3–21
Heerenveen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W2 Mar 25H · AZ Alkmaar3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht6 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Heerenveen6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
