Utrecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Utrecht57.9%fair odds 1.73
Draw23.0%fair odds 4.35
Heerenveen19.1%fair odds 5.25
Expected goals1.92 – 1.02total 2.94
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Heerenveen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Utrecht ↓ · Heerenveen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Utrecht goals, columns Heerenveen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.19
- 2–19.9%10.06
- 2–09.7%10.26
- 1–09.6%10.43
- 3–16.4%15.68
- 3–06.3%15.99
- 0–05.8%17.21
- 1–25.3%18.99
- 2–25.1%19.73
- 0–14.8%20.75
Winning margin
16.7%
Utrecht by 3+
fair 6.01
17.9%
Utrecht by 2
fair 5.58
23.4%
Utrecht by 1
fair 4.28
23.0%
Draw
fair 4.35
12.1%
Heerenveen by 1
fair 8.25
5.0%
Heerenveen by 2
fair 19.89
1.9%
Heerenveen by 3+
fair 52.30
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
18%5+
Utrecht goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
Heerenveen goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht win | 57.9% | 57.4% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Heerenveen win | 19.1% | 19.0% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 53.8% | +2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.1% | 53.2% | +1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Utrecht | 1.92 | 1.85 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Heerenveen | 1.02 | 0.98 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Utrecht win57.9%1.73
- Draw23.0%4.35
- Heerenveen win19.1%5.25
- Double chance Utrecht or draw80.9%1.24
- Double chance Utrecht or Heerenveen77.0%1.30
- Double chance Heerenveen or draw42.1%2.38
- Draw no bet Utrecht75.2%1.33
- Draw no bet Heerenveen24.8%4.04
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.8%1.25
- Over 2.556.4%1.77
- Over 3.534.0%2.94
- Over 4.517.5%5.70
- Under 1.520.2%4.95
- Under 2.543.6%2.29
- Under 3.566.0%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes55.1%1.81
- No44.9%2.23
- Yes and over 2.544.3%2.26
- Utrecht win and yes27.7%3.61
- Draw and yes17.2%5.81
- Heerenveen win and yes10.3%9.73
Team goals
- Utrecht over 0.585.4%1.17
- Utrecht over 1.557.3%1.74
- Utrecht over 2.530.3%3.30
- Heerenveen over 0.563.9%1.56
- Heerenveen over 1.527.1%3.68
- Heerenveen over 2.58.4%11.91
- Utrecht clean sheet36.1%2.77
- Heerenveen clean sheet14.6%6.85
- Utrecht win to nil30.3%3.30
- Heerenveen win to nil8.8%11.39
Handicap
- Utrecht −1.534.6%2.89
- Utrecht −2.516.7%6.01
- Heerenveen +1.565.4%1.53
- Heerenveen +2.583.3%1.20
- Heerenveen −1.56.9%14.41
- Utrecht +1.593.1%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored60
Favourite won51.7%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.552
Over 2.5 called right68.3%
BTTS called right60.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.1% | 12.5% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 44.0% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 56.1% | 58.8% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 64.0% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.2% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 38 of 60 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5496 | 0.5120 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.3% | 46.3% |
| Favourite won | 47.4% | 60.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 38 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 60 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.