Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were clear favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 18). Utrecht had ? days of rest, Heracles ? and had to travel 109 km.
Away travel109 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Utrecht63%
Draw22%
Heracles16%
Utrecht62%
Draw22%
Heracles16%
Utrecht63%
Draw22%
Heracles16%
Utrecht55%
Draw24%
Heracles21%
Utrecht62%
Draw22%
Heracles16%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.06
- Matches 16
Team strength
Utrecht
Heracles
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
32
AttackIn forecast
7
31
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtHeracles
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.44
ShotsContext
9.10
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
32%
On target shareContext
34%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.25
62%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.29
10.56
Shots allowedContext
14.20
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.56
BlocksContext
4.20
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
74%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
379
PassesContext
356
301
Accurate passesContext
283
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.67
FoulsContext
13.00
9.78
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel109 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 109 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
10Y. Cathline
7V. Jensen
15A. Blake
9D. Min
Heracles
Confirmed XI
1F. de Keijzer(G)
15D. van der Kust
24I. Mesík
4D. Mirani
3J. Wieckhoff
32S. Scheperman
13J. Žambůrek
8M. Engels
17T. van Gilst
7B. Limbombe
9J. Hornkamp
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Heracles+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
No home games yet this season.
Heracles · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Utrecht wins1 draws0 Heracles wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 24 Jan 2025Heracles1–1Utrecht
- 8 Nov 2024Utrecht1–0Heracles
- 23 Feb 2024Utrecht1–0Heracles
- 16 Sep 2023Heracles1–3Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Utrecht | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Utrecht | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 10.40 | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 2.63
Red cards0.06league 0.13
Cards 5+13%league 25%
Fouls22.1league 21.3
Penalties0.06league 0.25
Home wins44%league 75%
Utrecht2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Mar 25H · NAC Breda1–01
- D3 Dec 23H · AZ Alkmaar1–10
Heracles3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Dec 24A · AZ Alkmaar0–13
- W27 Sep 24H · Heerenveen2–12
- W18 Aug 23H · NEC Nijmegen2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
UtrechtHeraclesUtrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
2
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
