Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 37). Nottingham Forest come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Utrecht had 4.3 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 5.1 and had to travel 435 km.
Away travel435 kmRest days4.3 · 5.1Matches / 14d3 · 4
Utrecht33%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest41%
Utrecht28%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest46%
Utrecht31%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest42%
Utrecht26%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest48%
Utrecht29%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest44%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
RefereeIrfan Peljto
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 35
Team strength
Utrecht
Nottingham Forest
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
32
AttackIn forecast
68
31
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtNottingham Forest
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.65
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
40%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
8.40
ShotsContext
15.20
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
29%
On target shareContext
38%
4.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
49%
Box shareContext
67%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.60
Shots allowedContext
5.80
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
4.60
BlocksContext
3.00
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.40
75%
Save rateContext
50%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
337
PassesContext
495
261
Accurate passesContext
431
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.97
13.00
FoulsContext
14.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.30
ShotsContext
12.80
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
30%
On target shareContext
34%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
62%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.70
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.38
BlocksContext
4.75
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
73%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
357
PassesContext
429
279
Accurate passesContext
353
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.70
FoulsContext
11.90
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.11
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,848 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Nottingham Forest
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel435 km418 km in 14d
Schedule load41%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | High · 41 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 5.1Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 435 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,848 km | 418 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 4 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
44M. Eerdhuijzen
40M. Didden
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
20D. de Wit
10Y. Cathline
91S. Haller
22Miguel Rodríguez
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
13John Victor(G)
35O. Zinchenko
5Murillo
4Morato
44Z. Abbott
16N. Domínguez
12Douglas Luiz
24J. McAtee
7C. Hudson-Odoi
15A. Kalimuendo
14D. Ndoye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Nottingham Forest-1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| FC Porto | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.80 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Utrecht | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 11.66 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/5 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Utrecht | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.25 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.40 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Irfan Peljto 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 4.11
Red cards0.23league 0.19
Cards 5+43%league 43%
Fouls21.7league 24.6
Penalties0.57league 0.38
Home wins54%league 51%
UtrechtNo previous matches with this referee.
Nottingham ForestNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht5 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Nottingham Forest5 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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