Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for PSV Eindhoven. Utrecht had 7.7 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 6.9 and had to travel 76 km.
Away travel76 kmRest days7.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Utrecht16%
Draw18%
PSV Eindhoven66%
Utrecht20%
Draw23%
PSV Eindhoven57%
Utrecht16%
Draw18%
PSV Eindhoven65%
Utrecht12%
Draw15%
PSV Eindhoven73%
Utrecht17%
Draw19%
PSV Eindhoven64%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsFreek Vandeursen
Team strength
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
32
AttackIn forecast
60
31
DefenceIn forecast
64
19
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtPSV Eindhoven
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
2.99
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.67
ShotsContext
21.67
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.67
34%
On target shareContext
40%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
17.00
74%
Box shareContext
78%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
—
18.00
Shots allowedContext
6.67
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.00
BlocksContext
1.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
53%
Save rateContext
58%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
353
PassesContext
643
276
Accurate passesContext
572
78%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.50
Team ratingContext
7.19
17.67
FoulsContext
7.33
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
6.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.30
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
2.38
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.92
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.50
ShotsContext
17.80
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.60
37%
On target shareContext
43%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
12.30
70%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
19%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.70
Shots allowedContext
9.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.30
BlocksContext
2.75
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
62%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
369
PassesContext
545
300
Accurate passesContext
479
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.17
11.70
FoulsContext
8.20
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
6.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
LLD
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 19 · 1 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Aug | 6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 76 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 96 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
21Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
6G. Offerhaus
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
34D. van den Berg
20D. de Wit
23N. Vesterlund
10Y. Cathline
9A. Stepanov
11Ángel Alarcón
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
6R. Flamingo
8S. Dest
31N. Fernandez
24K. Sano
7R. van Bommel
20G. Til
5I. Perišić
9R. Pepi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- PSV Eindhoven+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | L 1–2 A | W 5–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Utrecht wins2 draws4 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 4 Apr 2026PSV Eindhoven4–3Utrecht
- 21 Dec 2025Utrecht1–2PSV Eindhoven
- 15 Feb 2025PSV Eindhoven2–2Utrecht
- 1 Dec 2024Utrecht2–5PSV Eindhoven
- 21 Jan 2024Utrecht1–1PSV Eindhoven
- 12 Aug 2023PSV Eindhoven2–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.67 | 4.33 | 3.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.80 | 3.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.50 | 10.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.67 | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.22 | 10.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Utrecht3 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven3 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 21 · conceded 22
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
6
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 33 · conceded 15
5
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
10
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
