Utrecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Utrecht15.6%fair odds 6.39
Draw18.8%fair odds 5.31
PSV Eindhoven65.5%fair odds 1.53
Expected goals1.13 – 2.42total 3.55
Likeliest score1–29.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Utrecht ↓ · PSV Eindhoven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Utrecht goals, columns PSV Eindhoven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.5%10.52
- 0–28.4%11.84
- 1–18.3%12.09
- 1–37.7%13.03
- 0–36.8%14.66
- 0–16.6%15.24
- 2–25.3%18.69
- 1–44.6%21.52
- 2–14.4%22.63
- 2–34.3%23.16
Winning margin
1.7%
Utrecht by 3+
fair 58.64
4.2%
Utrecht by 2
fair 24.03
9.8%
Utrecht by 1
fair 10.23
18.8%
Draw
fair 5.31
21.5%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 4.65
19.3%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 5.19
24.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 4.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
19%2
21%3
19%4
28%5+
Utrecht goals
32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
PSV Eindhoven goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht win | 15.6% | 16.5% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 18.8% | 19.6% | -0.8 pp |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 65.5% | 63.9% | +1.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 68.8% | 67.0% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.0% | 61.3% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Utrecht | 1.13 | 1.12 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 2.42 | 2.33 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Utrecht win15.6%6.39
- Draw18.8%5.31
- PSV Eindhoven win65.5%1.53
- Double chance Utrecht or draw34.5%2.90
- Double chance Utrecht or PSV Eindhoven81.2%1.23
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw84.4%1.19
- Draw no bet Utrecht19.3%5.19
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven80.7%1.24
Goals
- Over 0.596.7%1.03
- Over 1.587.3%1.15
- Over 2.568.8%1.45
- Over 3.547.3%2.11
- Over 4.528.3%3.53
- Under 1.512.7%7.88
- Under 2.531.2%3.20
- Under 3.552.7%1.90
Both teams to score
- Yes62.0%1.61
- No38.0%2.63
- Yes and over 2.553.7%1.86
- Utrecht win and yes10.1%9.94
- Draw and yes15.5%6.43
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes36.4%2.75
Team goals
- Utrecht over 0.567.5%1.48
- Utrecht over 1.531.0%3.22
- Utrecht over 2.510.5%9.55
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.591.1%1.10
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.569.6%1.44
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.543.6%2.29
- Utrecht clean sheet8.9%11.26
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet32.5%3.08
- Utrecht win to nil5.6%17.92
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil29.2%3.43
Handicap
- Utrecht −1.55.9%17.04
- Utrecht −2.51.7%58.64
- PSV Eindhoven +1.594.1%1.06
- PSV Eindhoven +2.598.3%1.02
- PSV Eindhoven −1.544.0%2.27
- Utrecht +1.556.0%1.79
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored28
Favourite won60.7%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.575
Over 2.5 called right78.6%
BTTS called right71.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 45.2% | 60.0% |
| 50–60% | 11 | 56.2% | 72.7% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.4% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 71.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 4 of 28 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5060 | 0.5166 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.8% | 46.0% |
| Favourite won | 75.0% | 75.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 4 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 28 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.