Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam – 25 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 25 · 15:45 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Utrecht 11th · 23 pts · 18 played DDDLL

First leg1–2 0–1Full time

Sparta Rotterdam 8th · 29 pts · 19 played WLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Utrecht were slight favourites.

Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 23). Utrecht had 2.8 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 7 and had to travel 48 km.

Away travel48 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Utrecht49%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam26%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.18

Utrecht49%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.11

Utrecht49%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam26%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.18

Utrecht42%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam32%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.32

Utrecht49%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam26%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.15

Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Utrecht)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.09
Matches 23

Team strength

Utrecht

Sparta Rotterdam

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

32 AttackIn forecast 32

31 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Utrecht

Sparta Rotterdam

1.61 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.26

1.39 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.79

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

89% Scored inContext 74%

17% Clean sheetsContext 37%

14.39 ShotsContext 13.05

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.63

34% On target shareContext 36%

9.61 Shots in the boxContext 8.63

66% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.64 OffsidesContext 1.58

11.78 Shots allowedContext 16.58

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.78

4.00 BlocksContext 4.32

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.72

68% Save rateContext 70%

48% PossessionIn forecast 46%

403 PassesContext 381

324 Accurate passesContext 303

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.89 FoulsContext 8.32

10.78 Fouls sufferedContext 10.37

1.39 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 18 and 19 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.46

90% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.90 ShotsContext 14.20

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

34% On target shareContext 37%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

61% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 8%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.80 Shots allowedContext 15.30

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.60

3.44 BlocksContext 3.70

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.20

65% Save rateContext 79%

44% PossessionIn forecast 51%

374 PassesContext 413

302 Accurate passesContext 334

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.04

11.00 FoulsContext 9.20

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km90 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel48 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Utrecht	Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	48 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	90 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1V. Barkas(G)

16S. El Karouani 44M. Eerdhuijzen 40M. Didden 2S. Horemans

8C. Bozdoğan 27A. Engwanda

11K. Karlsson 20D. de Wit 10Y. Cathline

22Miguel Rodríguez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Drommel(G)

5T. Quintero 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

6J. Baas 8J. Kitolano

11S. Mito 10A. Santos 7M. van Bergen

9T. Lauritsen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Utrecht Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Utrecht-0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Sparta Rotterdam+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home 1.89points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.67points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-4
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 1.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Utrecht	Sparta Rotterdam
FC Volendam	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	W 1–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 H	L 1–6 A
NAC Breda	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Twente	D 1–1 H	L 1–5 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 A	W 3–0 A
Telstar	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Ajax	W 2–1 H	D 3–3 H
NEC Nijmegen	W 1–0 H	L 1–3 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–4 A	L 0–1 H
Feyenoord	L 2–3 A	W 4–3 AL 0–4 H
Heerenveen	D 2–2 H	L 0–3 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Groningen	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 A
PEC Zwolle	W 2–0 A	L 0–1 A
Excelsior	W 4–1 H	W 1–0 A
Heracles	W 4–0 H	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A
Points	23 of 51 · 1.35 per game	26 of 54 · 1.44 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Utrecht wins1 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.25 Over 2.575% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

17 Aug 2025Sparta Rotterdam2–1Utrecht
14 May 2025Utrecht1–1Sparta Rotterdam
3 Nov 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–4Utrecht
26 Nov 2023Sparta Rotterdam1–2Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Utrecht	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.61	1.26
Conceded per game	1.39	1.79
Match goals	3.00	3.05	2.88
Over 1.5	83%	68%
Over 2.5	61%	53%	55%
Over 3.5	39%	32%
Both teams scored	72%	37%	57%
Clean sheets	17%	37%
Failed to score	11%	26%
Games	18	19

	Utrecht	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	2.70	2.30	2.88
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	55%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	90%	30%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Utrecht	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.65	4.56
Corners conceded	4.65	7.11
Match total	9.30	11.67	10.26
Over 8.5	47% 8/17	94% 17/18
Over 9.5	41% 7/17	78% 14/18
Over 10.5	41% 7/17	67% 12/18
Cards
Cards	1.39	1.84
Opponent cards	2.00	1.95
Match total	3.39	3.79	3.59
Over 3.5	50% 9/18	63% 12/19
Over 4.5	17% 3/18	37% 7/19

	Utrecht	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	5.89
Corners conceded	4.40	7.22
Match total	9.00	13.11	10.26
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	89% 8/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	89% 8/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	1.80
Match total	3.60	3.90	3.59
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 23 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.22league 3.38

Red cards0.04league 0.20

Cards 5+13%league 31%

Fouls22.0league 21.7

Penalties0.09league 0.27

Home wins43%league 44%

Utrecht3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.0.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W10 Aug 25H · Heracles4–01
W1 Mar 25H · NAC Breda1–01
D3 Dec 23H · AZ Alkmaar1–10

Sparta Rotterdam2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D22 Nov 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–11
W13 Jan 24A · Fortuna Sittard2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.