Utrecht vs Telstar – 11 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Apr 11 · 15:30 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Utrecht 9th · 41 pts · 29 played WDWWL

First leg1–1 4–1Full time

Telstar 15th · 27 pts · 29 played WWLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Utrecht were slight favourites.

Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Utrecht. Utrecht had 7 days of rest, Telstar 6.9 and had to travel 52 km.

Away travel52 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Utrecht59%

Draw21%

Telstar19%

Expected goals 2.14 – 1.16

Utrecht52%

Draw25%

Telstar23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Utrecht59%

Draw22%

Telstar20%

Expected goals 2.11 – 1.16

Utrecht51%

Draw23%

Telstar26%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.30

Utrecht59%

Draw22%

Telstar19%

Expected goals 2.11 – 1.14

Over 2.5 64% Both score 61% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Utrecht)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 113

Team strength

Utrecht

Telstar

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

32 AttackIn forecast 24

31 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Utrecht

Telstar

1.55 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

1.21 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.66

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

83% Scored inContext 72%

24% Clean sheetsContext 14%

14.17 ShotsContext 12.69

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.86

35% On target shareContext 37%

9.62 Shots in the boxContext 8.11

68% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.24

11.93 Shots allowedContext 15.86

4.52 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.43

3.78 BlocksContext 4.67

3.24 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.68

72% Save rateContext 73%

47% PossessionIn forecast 45%

391 PassesContext 362

309 Accurate passesContext 280

79% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.86 FoulsContext 11.21

10.66 Fouls sufferedContext 10.17

1.41 Yellow cardsContext 1.17

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.77

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.10 ShotsContext 12.70

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

41% On target shareContext 43%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

71% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.25 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.90 Shots allowedContext 16.80

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.67

3.71 BlocksContext 4.67

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.78

78% Save rateContext 75%

43% PossessionIn forecast 49%

360 PassesContext 381

274 Accurate passesContext 295

76% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.90 FoulsContext 12.30

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 0.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km153 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Telstar

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel52 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Utrecht	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	52 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	153 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14.8	11.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1V. Barkas(G)

16S. El Karouani 3M. van der Hoorn 40M. Didden 23N. Vesterlund

21G. Zechiël 27A. Engwanda

10Y. Cathline 20D. de Wit 77Ángel Alarcón

18A. Stepanov

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 8T. Owusu 23C. Hatenboer 11T. Noslin

27P. Brouwer 39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

37Sem van Duijn

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Utrecht Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Utrecht+0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Telstar-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home 1.71points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 7-3-4
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 0.86

Telstar · Away 0.93points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Utrecht	Telstar
PSV Eindhoven	L 3–4 AL 1–2 H	W 3–1 HW 2–0 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 AW 4–2 H
Twente	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A
Heracles	D 0–0 AW 4–0 H	D 1–1 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 2–0 HL 1–4 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H
Groningen	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H	D 2–2 H
Feyenoord	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Heerenveen	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
FC Volendam	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	D 2–2 H
NAC Breda	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Ajax	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–1 A	W 4–1 AL 1–3 H
Excelsior	W 4–1 H	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
Points	40 of 84 · 1.43 per game	26 of 84 · 0.93 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Utrecht wins1 draws0 Telstar wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

23 Nov 2025Telstar1–1Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Utrecht	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.55	1.31
Conceded per game	1.21	1.66
Match goals	2.76	2.97	3.30
Over 1.5	79%	86%
Over 2.5	48%	55%	64%
Over 3.5	31%	38%
Both teams scored	62%	62%	61%
Clean sheets	24%	14%
Failed to score	17%	28%
Games	29	29

	Utrecht	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.40
Conceded per game	0.90	1.60
Match goals	2.50	3.00	3.30
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	64%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	61%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Utrecht	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.92	4.75
Corners conceded	4.69	6.36
Match total	9.61	11.11	10.29
Over 8.5	62% 16/26	79% 22/28
Over 9.5	46% 12/26	64% 18/28
Over 10.5	38% 10/26	57% 16/28
Cards
Cards	1.45	1.24
Opponent cards	1.86	1.79
Match total	3.31	3.03	3.35
Over 3.5	45% 13/29	31% 9/29
Over 4.5	17% 5/29	24% 7/29

	Utrecht	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	4.20
Corners conceded	4.78	6.70
Match total	10.22	10.90	10.29
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	0.70
Opponent cards	1.50	1.70
Match total	3.20	2.40	3.35
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 113 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.26league 3.18

Red cards0.12league 0.17

Cards 5+26%league 26%

Fouls21.5league 21.3

Penalties0.30league 0.23

Home wins42%league 45%

Utrecht5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

W11 Feb 26A · NEC Nijmegen3–12
W9 Nov 25H · Ajax2–11
L1 Dec 24H · PSV Eindhoven2–52
W29 Sep 24A · AZ Alkmaar2–12
D17 Aug 24A · Heerenveen1–12

Telstar1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D6 Dec 25A · Heracles1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.