Eredivisie Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 17 · 11:15 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Utrecht 11th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Twente 5th · 17 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel122 kmRest days7.7 · 8.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Utrecht—%
Draw—%
Twente—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Utrecht)

Forecast from 2 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Utrecht and Twente. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

UtrechtTwente
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 45
32 AttackIn forecast 41
31 DefenceIn forecast 49
65 Form indexContext 58
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

UtrechtTwente
1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89
2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74
+0.47 Goals minus xGContext +0.26
89% Scored inContext 89%
0% Clean sheetsContext 22%
12.89 ShotsContext 20.56
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
34% On target shareContext 34%
10.25 Shots in the boxContext 13.44
69% Box shareContext 65%
14% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.57
18.11 Shots allowedContext 11.11
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89
4.33 BlocksContext 4.57
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
57% Save rateContext 69%
43% PossessionIn forecast 58%
391 PassesContext 535
313 Accurate passesContext 462
80% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.55 Team ratingContext 6.97
16.33 FoulsContext 11.33
10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 8.44
2.11 Yellow cardsContext 0.78
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
2.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74
+0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.27
90% Scored inContext 90%
0% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.70 ShotsContext 20.56
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
33% On target shareContext 34%
10.67 Shots in the boxContext 13.44
68% Box shareContext 65%
14% ConversionContext 9%
1.83 OffsidesContext 1.57
17.60 Shots allowedContext 11.11
6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89
4.10 BlocksContext 4.57
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
57% Save rateContext 69%
43% PossessionIn forecast 58%
388 PassesContext 535
312 Accurate passesContext 462
80% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.60 Team ratingContext 6.97
15.80 FoulsContext 11.33
10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.44
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km162 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Twente2–10.7 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Willem II3–12.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Feyenoord0–50.5 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Excelsior2–10.9 xPts
  • D8 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles3–31.6 xPts
Twente
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel122 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Utrecht1–22.1 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Fortuna Sittard1–11.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · PSV Eindhoven3–21.0 xPts
  • W12 SepH · ADO Den Haag2–02.4 xPts
  • W9 SepH · Telstar1–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Utrecht Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Jan8.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km122 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways162 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one7.26.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Twente (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
22S. Padt(G)
5N. Panagiotou 3M. Didden 2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré 38O. Agougil 8J. van Overeem 23N. Vesterlund
11Ángel Alarcón 20D. de Wit 10Y. Cathline
Twente Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Utrecht (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
16J. Drommel(G)
29A. Adelgaard 4Ruud Nijstad 3R. Pröpper 28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann 6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots
9W. Weghorst

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Utrecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Twente Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.50
Twente · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.75
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentUtrechtTwente
PSV Eindhoven L 1–6 H W 3–2 H
Groningen L 1–2 A D 2–2 A
Points0 of 6 · 0.00 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Utrecht wins2 draws1 Twente wins
Goals per game1.29 – 0.86 Over 2.529% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 14%
  • 18 Oct 2026Twente1–2Utrecht
  • 15 Mar 2026Twente0–2Utrecht
  • 7 Dec 2025Utrecht1–1Twente
  • 11 May 2025Twente2–0Utrecht
  • 1 Sep 2024Utrecht2–1Twente
  • 18 Feb 2024Twente0–1Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

UtrechtTwenteForecast
Scored per game 1.781.89
Conceded per game 2.891.11
Match goals 4.673.00
Over 1.5 100%78%
Over 2.5 100%56%
Over 3.5 67%44%
Both teams scored 89%67%
Clean sheets 0%22%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99
UtrechtTwenteForecast
Scored per game 1.801.90
Conceded per game 2.601.20
Match goals 4.403.10
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 90%60%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 80%70%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

UtrechtTwenteLeague
Corners
Corners won4.257.22
Corners conceded5.253.89
Match total9.5011.1110.39
Over 8.563% 5/8100% 9/9
Over 9.550% 4/878% 7/9
Over 10.538% 3/867% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.110.78
Opponent cards0.891.56
Match total3.002.342.77
Over 3.533% 3/922% 2/9
Over 4.522% 2/90% 0/9
UtrechtTwenteLeague
Corners
Corners won4.677.22
Corners conceded5.333.89
Match total10.0011.1110.39
Over 8.567% 6/9100% 9/9
Over 9.556% 5/978% 7/9
Over 10.544% 4/967% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.901.00
Opponent cards0.901.60
Match total2.802.602.77
Over 3.530% 3/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Utrecht9 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
1 4 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
3 7 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 7 76-90
Twente9 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
3 5 16-30
3 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 1 76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
1 4 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
6 8 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 8 76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 6 16-30
3 31-45
2 3 46-60
4 1 61-75
5 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Heerenveen Sparta Rotterdam Jan 1519:00 Telstar NEC Nijmegen Jan 1615:30 Excelsior Feyenoord Jan 1617:45 ADO Den Haag PEC Zwolle Jan 1619:00 Fortuna Sittard PSV Eindhoven Jan 1620:00 Utrecht Twente Jan 1711:15 Ajax Groningen Jan 1713:30 GO Ahead Eagles AZ Alkmaar Jan 1713:30 Cambuur Willem II Jan 1715:45