Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were clear favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 10). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Willem II. Utrecht had 21 days of rest, Willem II 21.6 and had to travel 60 km.
Away travel60 kmRest days21 · 21.6Matches / 14d0 · 0
Utrecht64%
Draw20%
Willem II17%
Utrecht64%
Draw20%
Willem II15%
Utrecht64%
Draw19%
Willem II16%
Utrecht56%
Draw22%
Willem II22%
Utrecht64%
Draw19%
Willem II17%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 42
Team strength
Utrecht
Willem II
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
10
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
10
32
AttackIn forecast
10
31
DefenceIn forecast
9
29
Form indexContext
9
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWillem II
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtWillem II
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
3.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.86
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
2.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.20
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.67
86%
Scored inContext
71%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.86
ShotsContext
11.86
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.71
37%
On target shareContext
23%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
68%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.57
Shots allowedContext
19.57
8.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.43
4.43
BlocksContext
4.00
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.57
55%
Save rateContext
62%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
382
PassesContext
351
302
Accurate passesContext
274
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.44
Team ratingContext
6.52
17.29
FoulsContext
9.00
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
8.86
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.55
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
12.11
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
34%
On target shareContext
26%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
67%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
17.00
Shots allowedContext
18.78
6.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.80
BlocksContext
4.00
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
59%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
388
PassesContext
357
313
Accurate passesContext
277
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.60
14.90
FoulsContext
9.22
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.67
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
DLDWL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 5 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Willem II
DLDLL
Rest21.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel60 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 2 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Willem II |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Eredivisie 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21.6Eredivisie 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 60 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.3 | 6.4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
5N. Panagiotou
3M. Didden
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
38O. Agougil
8J. van Overeem
23N. Vesterlund
10Y. Cathline
20D. de Wit
80M. Broholm
Willem II
Confirmed XI
26M. Delanghe(G)
24N. Tjoe-A-On
23M. Dekker
3F. Stam
5H. ter Avest
52T. Vilhena
6C. Twigt
32Vito van Crooij
19U. van Aalst
7J. Slory
9D. Haen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Willem II
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Willem II+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 4.33
Willem II · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 3–3 H | L 1–4 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Utrecht wins0 draws0 Willem II wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 9 Mar 2025Willem II2–3Utrecht
- 21 Sep 2024Utrecht3–2Willem II
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.43 | 2.86 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.71 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 71% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 71% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Utrecht | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 2.86 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 3.71 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 71% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 71% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 29% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.86 | 10.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.14 | 0.57 | |
| Match total | 3.28 | 1.71 | 2.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Utrecht | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 6.78 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 10.56 | 10.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.30 | 2.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 2.66
Red cards0.07league 0.04
Cards 5+26%league 10%
Fouls22.5league 21.0
Penalties0.14league 0.21
Home wins45%league 31%
Utrecht7 with this referee
Record4-3-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 May 26H · Heerenveen3–20
- D6 Mar 26A · Heracles0–01
- D1 Feb 26A · Heerenveen1–12
- D30 Nov 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
- W31 Aug 25A · PEC Zwolle2–01
Willem II2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D30 Aug 26H · Heerenveen2–20
- W4 Oct 24A · Almere City FC1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht7 games · scored 11 · conceded 24
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
7
76-90
Willem II7 games · scored 6 · conceded 20
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
46-60
1
8
61-75
4
4
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 18 · conceded 27
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
9
76-90
Willem II10 games · scored 9 · conceded 23
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
8
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
