Valencia
Attack+2%
Defense risk−3%
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Athletic Club. Valencia were without Luis Rioja. Athletic Club were without Oihan Sancet. Valencia had 6 days of rest, Athletic Club 7.3 and had to travel 472 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel472 kmRest days6 · 7.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Valencia36%
Draw27%
Athletic Club37%
Valencia42%
Draw27%
Athletic Club31%
Valencia37%
Draw27%
Athletic Club36%
Valencia29%
Draw26%
Athletic Club44%
Valencia37%
Draw26%
Athletic Club37%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
21°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.3 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 80%
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 24
Team strength
Valencia
Athletic Club
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
39
AttackIn forecast
51
52
DefenceIn forecast
64
34
Form indexContext
68
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack+14%
Defense risk−15%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
ValenciaAthletic Club
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
50%
Scored inContext
67%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.50
ShotsContext
15.67
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
25%
On target shareContext
30%
6.71
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
55%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
2.13
OffsidesContext
4.50
15.88
Shots allowedContext
9.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.00
BlocksContext
2.00
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
71%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
434
PassesContext
482
356
Accurate passesContext
410
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.50
FoulsContext
11.17
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.60
ShotsContext
15.10
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
28%
On target shareContext
31%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
57%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.67
14.50
Shots allowedContext
9.20
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.78
BlocksContext
1.86
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
69%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
408
PassesContext
430
331
Accurate passesContext
355
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.60
FoulsContext
12.30
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
LLWLD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,055 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 34 · 4 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Athletic Club
LWWDD
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel472 km646 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 68 · 8 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 7.3La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 472 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,055 km | 646 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
12J. de Haas
5César Tárrega
24Pablo Maffeo
2G. Rodríguez
18Pepelu
7A. Danjuma
8Javi Guerra
19Dani Raba
9Hugo Duro
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean
14A. Laporte
4Aitor Paredes
15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta
24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro
28Peio Canales
7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −31.3% · Defence line −5.2% of weighted minutes
- ATT Luis Rioja Starter 6.79 Att −19.4%
- ATT U. Sadiq Rotation 6.72 Att −6.5%
- DEF Copete Rotation 6.71 Def −3.7%
- ATT Diego López Rotation 6.66 Att −5.4%
- DEF D. Foulquier Rotation 6.29 Def −1.5%
Athletic Club
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −15.9% · Defence line −5.4% of weighted minutes
- MID Oihan Sancet Starter 6.66 Att −8.4% Def −5.4%
- ATT Nico Williams Rotation 6.78 Att −7.4%
- ATT Álvaro Djaló Depth 6.50 Att −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Athletic Club+0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.25
Athletic Club · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–5 H | L 0–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
3 Valencia wins3 draws4 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.80 – 0.80
Over 2.520%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 10 May 2026Athletic Club0–1Valencia
- 20 Sep 2025Valencia2–0Athletic Club
- 18 May 2025Valencia0–1Athletic Club
- 28 Aug 2024Athletic Club1–0Valencia
- 20 Jan 2024Valencia1–0Athletic Club
- 29 Oct 2023Athletic Club2–2Valencia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.17 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% | |
| Games | 8 | 6 |
| Valencia | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.40 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 11.00 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 3.84 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Valencia | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 6.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 11.45 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.40 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.17league 4.38
Red cards0.17league 0.29
Cards 5+50%league 56%
Fouls24.0league 24.6
Penalties0.29league 0.34
Home wins75%league 43%
Valencia2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W1 Mar 26H · Osasuna1–02
- W10 May 25H · Getafe3–03
Athletic Club1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W29 Nov 25A · Levante2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia8 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
Athletic Club6 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
