Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Athletic Club. Rayo Vallecano are without Adrià Pedrosa and A. Batalla. Athletic Club are without Oihan Sancet. Rayo Vallecano have 21 days of rest, Athletic Club 20.9 and have to travel 323 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel323 kmRest days21 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Rayo Vallecano44%
Draw24%
Athletic Club32%
Rayo Vallecano46%
Draw25%
Athletic Club29%
Rayo Vallecano44%
Draw24%
Athletic Club31%
Rayo Vallecano36%
Draw24%
Athletic Club39%
Rayo Vallecano44%
Draw24%
Athletic Club32%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 week ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
22°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 33%
RefereeJosé Sánchez
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 103
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
61
AttackIn forecast
51
60
DefenceIn forecast
64
65
Form indexContext
68
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoAthletic Club
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
2.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.43
ShotsContext
15.67
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
34%
On target shareContext
30%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
57%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
4.50
16.57
Shots allowedContext
9.50
5.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.14
BlocksContext
2.00
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
59%
Save rateContext
81%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
381
PassesContext
482
308
Accurate passesContext
410
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.43
FoulsContext
11.17
13.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.29
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.30
ShotsContext
15.10
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
35%
On target shareContext
31%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
54%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.67
15.70
Shots allowedContext
9.20
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.50
BlocksContext
1.86
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
67%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
393
PassesContext
430
320
Accurate passesContext
355
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.50
FoulsContext
12.30
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
LWLWD
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Athletic Club
LWWDD
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel323 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 68 · 8 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20.9La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 323 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.3 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa
15Mujaid Sadick
24F. Lejeune
20I. Balliu
8Unai López
6P. Ciss
4Pedro Díaz
18Álvaro García
10Sergio Camello
19Jorge de Frutos
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
5Yeray
12Jesús Areso
24Beñat Gerenabarrena
16Ruíz de Galarreta
23Robert Navarro
28Peio Canales
7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −28.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF Adrià Pedrosa Starter 6.79 Def −13.4%
- DEF A. Batalla Starter 6.86 Def −12.2%
- DEF I. Balliu Rotation 6.40 Def −1.8%
- DEF Luiz Felipe Rotation 6.65 Def −1.4%
Athletic Club
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −15.9% · Defence line −5.4% of weighted minutes
- MID Oihan Sancet Starter 6.66 Att −8.4% Def −5.4%
- ATT Nico Williams Rotation 6.78 Att −7.4%
- ATT Álvaro Djaló Depth 6.50 Att −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Athletic Club+0.6 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Athletic Club · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 2–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Rayo Vallecano wins2 draws7 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.70 – 1.70
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets10% · 50%
- 28 Feb 2026Rayo Vallecano1–1Athletic Club
- 25 Aug 2025Athletic Club1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 13 Apr 2025Athletic Club3–1Rayo Vallecano
- 1 Dec 2024Rayo Vallecano1–2Athletic Club
- 25 May 2024Rayo Vallecano0–1Athletic Club
- 2 Dec 2023Athletic Club4–0Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.86 | 2.17 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 33% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.40 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.14 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 11.43 | 11.00 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 3.84 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 6.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.45 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Sánchez 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.20league 4.23
Red cards0.17league 0.26
Cards 5+66%league 53%
Fouls27.6league 24.6
Penalties0.25league 0.36
Home wins42%league 44%
Rayo Vallecano1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Aug 22H · Mallorca0–21
Athletic Club9 with this referee
Record3-2-4
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W8 Feb 25H · Girona3–00
- D15 Dec 24A · Alaves1–12
- W4 Dec 24H · Real Madrid2–13
- W22 Sep 24H · Celta Vigo3–13
- L22 Jan 23H · Real Madrid0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano7 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
Athletic Club6 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
