Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Valencia had 6.9 days of rest, Barcelona 5.8 and had to travel 302 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel302 kmRest days6.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Valencia13%
Draw17%
Barcelona69%
Valencia17%
Draw21%
Barcelona62%
Valencia14%
Draw18%
Barcelona69%
Valencia9%
Draw14%
Barcelona76%
Valencia14%
Draw19%
Barcelona67%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
Heat stress
34°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 32%
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 44
Team strength
Valencia
Barcelona
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
39
AttackIn forecast
97
52
DefenceIn forecast
92
26
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaBarcelona
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
4.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
3.88
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.72
-0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
33%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
12.00
ShotsContext
19.67
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.67
25%
On target shareContext
44%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
15.00
57%
Box shareContext
79%
3%
ConversionContext
20%
2.33
OffsidesContext
4.67
11.00
Shots allowedContext
7.67
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.67
BlocksContext
—
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
80%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
471
PassesContext
601
398
Accurate passesContext
536
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.72
Team ratingContext
7.48
10.67
FoulsContext
9.67
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.50
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.11
28%
On target shareContext
41%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
62%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.40
OffsidesContext
3.22
11.40
Shots allowedContext
8.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
3.13
BlocksContext
2.13
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
75%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
394
PassesContext
632
321
Accurate passesContext
572
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.12
11.00
FoulsContext
9.90
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
DLL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,592 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 26 · 1 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 5.8La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 302 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,592 km | 850 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
21Jesús Vázquez
18Pepelu
4M. Diakhaby
22Arnau Martínez
24Pablo Maffeo
8Javi Guerra
15A. Dieng
23F. Ugrinic
27David Otorbi
7A. Danjuma
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
24Eric García
8Pedri
16Rodri
7Fermín López
17A. Gordon
11Raphinha
10Lamine Yamal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Barcelona+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Barcelona · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
1 Valencia wins1 draws8 Barcelona wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 23 May 2026Valencia3–1Barcelona
- 14 Sep 2025Barcelona6–0Valencia
- 26 Jan 2025Barcelona7–1Valencia
- 17 Aug 2024Valencia1–2Barcelona
- 29 Apr 2024Barcelona4–2Valencia
- 16 Dec 2023Valencia1–1Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 4.67 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Valencia | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 11.66 | 10.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 1.66 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Valencia | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.70 | 10.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.80 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.80league 4.26
Red cards0.30league 0.23
Cards 5+59%league 46%
Fouls25.7league 25.3
Penalties0.25league 0.31
Home wins36%league 54%
Valencia3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W18 Jan 26A · Getafe1–03
- L4 Oct 25A · Girona1–21
- W14 Jan 24A · Cadiz4–12
Barcelona3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 May 26A · Osasuna2–12
- W28 Feb 26H · Villarreal4–12
- L10 Dec 23H · Girona2–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia3 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Barcelona3 games · scored 12 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
7
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
