Valencia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Valencia12.8%fair odds 7.80
Draw18.2%fair odds 5.48
Barcelona69.0%fair odds 1.45
Expected goals0.96 – 2.41total 3.36
Likeliest score0–210.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Valencia ↓ · Barcelona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Valencia goals, columns Barcelona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.0%9.99
- 1–29.6%10.42
- 1–18.4%11.91
- 0–38.0%12.45
- 0–17.9%12.66
- 1–37.7%13.00
- 0–44.8%20.69
- 1–44.6%21.60
- 2–24.6%21.77
- 0–03.9%25.76
Winning margin
1.1%
Valencia by 3+
fair 90.55
3.2%
Valencia by 2
fair 31.09
8.5%
Valencia by 1
fair 11.77
18.2%
Draw
fair 5.48
22.0%
Barcelona by 1
fair 4.55
20.3%
Barcelona by 2
fair 4.93
26.7%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 3.75
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Valencia goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
Barcelona goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia win | 12.8% | 13.8% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 18.2% | 19.5% | -1.2 pp |
| Barcelona win | 69.0% | 66.8% | +2.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 62.1% | +3.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.5% | 55.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Valencia | 0.96 | 0.94 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.41 | 2.27 | +0.14 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Valencia win12.8%7.80
- Draw18.2%5.48
- Barcelona win69.0%1.45
- Double chance Valencia or draw31.0%3.22
- Double chance Valencia or Barcelona81.8%1.22
- Double chance Barcelona or draw87.2%1.15
- Draw no bet Valencia15.7%6.38
- Draw no bet Barcelona84.3%1.19
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.3%1.17
- Over 2.565.3%1.53
- Over 3.543.4%2.31
- Over 4.524.9%4.01
- Under 1.514.7%6.82
- Under 2.534.7%2.88
- Under 3.556.6%1.77
Both teams to score
- Yes56.5%1.77
- No43.5%2.30
- Yes and over 2.548.1%2.08
- Valencia win and yes7.7%13.02
- Draw and yes14.4%6.97
- Barcelona win and yes34.5%2.90
Team goals
- Valencia over 0.561.6%1.62
- Valencia over 1.524.9%4.02
- Valencia over 2.57.3%13.75
- Barcelona over 0.591.0%1.10
- Barcelona over 1.569.3%1.44
- Barcelona over 2.543.2%2.32
- Valencia clean sheet9.0%11.09
- Barcelona clean sheet38.4%2.61
- Valencia win to nil5.1%19.48
- Barcelona win to nil34.5%2.90
Handicap
- Valencia −1.54.3%23.14
- Valencia −2.51.1%90.55
- Barcelona +1.595.7%1.05
- Barcelona +2.598.9%1.01
- Barcelona −1.547.0%2.13
- Valencia +1.553.0%1.89
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won45.7%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.584
Over 2.5 called right54.3%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.7% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 45.2% | 28.6% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.8% | 62.5% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 63.8% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 16 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5988 | 0.6285 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 39.4% |
| Favourite won | 43.8% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 16 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Deportivo La Coruna 3–1 Valencia35·27·38
- ✓Real Madrid 4–0 Malaga77·14·9
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.