Valencia vs Celta Vigo – 5 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 30 Sun, Apr 5 · 15:15 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 13th · 35 pts · 29 played LWWLW

2–3Full time

Celta Vigo 6th · 41 pts · 29 played WWLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Valencia. Valencia had 14.8 days of rest, Celta Vigo 14 and had to travel 765 km.

Away travel765 kmRest days14.8 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1

Valencia36%

Draw30%

Celta Vigo34%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.14

Valencia37%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.33

Valencia37%

Draw30%

Celta Vigo33%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.10

Valencia30%

Draw29%

Celta Vigo41%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.28

Valencia37%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo35%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.22

Over 2.5 41% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 15

Team strength

Valencia

Celta Vigo

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

39 AttackIn forecast 36

52 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Celta Vigo

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.41

1.45 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.21

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

76% Scored inContext 86%

28% Clean sheetsContext 28%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.45

3.04 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

27% On target shareContext 38%

7.26 Shots in the boxContext 6.66

63% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.05 OffsidesContext 2.67

11.66 Shots allowedContext 11.79

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.21

2.96 BlocksContext 3.52

3.12 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.23

68% Save rateContext 74%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

414 PassesContext 488

340 Accurate passesContext 421

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.69 FoulsContext 11.14

11.41 Fouls sufferedContext 11.69

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.76

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

80% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.50 ShotsContext 10.60

3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

27% On target shareContext 48%

7.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

66% Box shareContext 69%

13% ConversionContext 16%

2.14 OffsidesContext 3.00

11.40 Shots allowedContext 10.10

3.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.13

2.90 BlocksContext 3.75

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

78% Save rateContext 64%

50% PossessionIn forecast 49%

410 PassesContext 477

332 Accurate passesContext 416

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.90 FoulsContext 11.20

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel765 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.8La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar	14La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	765 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 24E. Cömert 5César Tárrega 4Unai Núñez

10André Almeida 2G. Rodríguez 8Javi Guerra 11Luis Rioja

17L. Ramazani 9Hugo Duro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 4J. Aidoo 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 6I. Moriba 22Hugo Sotelo 3Óscar Mingueza

23Hugo Álvarez 18Pablo Durán 9Ferran Jutglà

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia-1.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Celta Vigo+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 1.64points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-3
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.07

Celta Vigo · Away 1.71points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 6-6-2
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Celta Vigo
Sevilla	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Oviedo	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 A
Alaves	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A	L 3–4 HW 1–0 A
Osasuna	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
Villarreal	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 H
Levante	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–1 A
Real Madrid	L 0–2 HL 0–4 A	L 1–2 HW 2–0 A
Real Betis	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Espanyol	W 3–2 HD 2–2 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Getafe	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Elche	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Mallorca	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Atletico Madrid	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Girona	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Barcelona	L 0–6 A	L 2–4 H
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H
Points	35 of 84 · 1.25 per game	38 of 84 · 1.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

6 Valencia wins2 draws2 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game1.70 – 1.20 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 10%

3 Jan 2026Celta Vigo4–1Valencia
2 Feb 2025Valencia2–1Celta Vigo
23 Aug 2024Celta Vigo3–1Valencia
26 May 2024Celta Vigo2–2Valencia
25 Nov 2023Valencia0–0Celta Vigo
14 May 2023Celta Vigo1–2Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.41
Conceded per game	1.45	1.21
Match goals	2.55	2.62	2.32
Over 1.5	79%	83%
Over 2.5	41%	41%	41%
Over 3.5	21%	21%
Both teams scored	52%	66%	48%
Clean sheets	28%	28%
Failed to score	24%	14%
Games	29	29

	Valencia	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.70
Conceded per game	1.10	1.20
Match goals	2.50	2.90	2.32
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	41%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	5.12	4.07
Corners conceded	4.85	4.55
Match total	9.97	8.62	9.50
Over 8.5	65% 17/26	45% 13/29
Over 9.5	50% 13/26	31% 9/29
Over 10.5	50% 13/26	24% 7/29
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.79
Opponent cards	2.45	2.59
Match total	4.35	4.38	4.49
Over 3.5	66% 19/29	62% 18/29
Over 4.5	55% 16/29	41% 12/29

	Valencia	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.13
Corners conceded	4.50	3.75
Match total	9.00	7.88	9.50
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	13% 1/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.20
Opponent cards	2.60	2.10
Match total	4.60	4.30	4.49
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.73league 4.23

Red cards0.40league 0.28

Cards 5+53%league 47%

Fouls28.1league 24.5

Penalties0.33league 0.36

Home wins27%league 49%

Valencia1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D20 Oct 25A · Alaves0–02

Celta Vigo2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D1 Feb 26A · Getafe0–02
L17 Aug 25H · Getafe0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.