Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Valencia were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Valencia usually keep the ball (50% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Valencia had 5.2 days of rest, Getafe 4 and had to travel 301 km.
Away travel301 kmRest days5.2 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Valencia45%
Draw28%
Getafe27%
Valencia46%
Draw26%
Getafe28%
Valencia45%
Draw28%
Getafe27%
Valencia38%
Draw29%
Getafe33%
Valencia46%
Draw26%
Getafe28%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 109
Team strength
Valencia
Getafe
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
39
AttackIn forecast
27
52
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaGetafe
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.60
-0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.00
ShotsContext
9.00
1.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
14%
On target shareContext
50%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
43%
Box shareContext
49%
5%
ConversionContext
22%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
15.00
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.50
BlocksContext
2.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
71%
Save rateContext
100%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
30%
372
PassesContext
237
308
Accurate passesContext
158
83%
Pass accuracyContext
67%
6.69
Team ratingContext
7.02
9.00
FoulsContext
19.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.10
ShotsContext
10.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
68%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.80
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.00
BlocksContext
1.80
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
83%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
449
PassesContext
260
373
Accurate passesContext
175
83%
Pass accuracyContext
67%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.30
FoulsContext
14.80
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km773 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel301 km1,694 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 301 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 773 km | 1,694 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16 | 14.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
25Julen Agirrezabala(G)
21Jesús Vázquez
4M. Diakhaby
5César Tárrega
20D. Foulquier
22B. Santamaría
8Javi Guerra
7A. Danjuma
16Diego López
11Luis Rioja
9Hugo Duro
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
26Davinchi
16Diego Rico
22Domingos Duarte
2D. Dakonam
21Juan Iglesias
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
10C. Uche
23Adrian Liso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Getafe+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Getafe · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Valencia wins3 draws3 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.30 – 0.90
Over 2.540%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 10 May 2025Valencia3–0Getafe
- 27 Oct 2024Getafe1–1Valencia
- 9 Mar 2024Valencia1–0Getafe
- 8 Dec 2023Getafe1–0Valencia
- 20 Feb 2023Getafe1–0Valencia
- 4 Sep 2022Valencia5–1Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Valencia | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.00 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Valencia | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.50 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.37league 3.45
Red cards0.28league 0.27
Cards 5+64%league 27%
Fouls25.6league 23.8
Penalties0.28league 0.36
Home wins36%league 45%
Valencia10 with this referee
Record3-4-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- W21 Sep 24H · Girona2–03
- W4 Apr 24A · Granada CF1–01
- L27 Sep 23H · Real Sociedad0–14
- L25 May 23A · Mallorca0–12
- W25 Feb 23H · Real Sociedad1–06
Getafe10 with this referee
Record6-3-1
Cards · opp.4.1 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds5
- W18 May 25A · Mallorca2–12
- W16 Mar 25A · Osasuna2–14
- L1 Dec 24A · Real Madrid0–26
- W11 Feb 24H · Celta Vigo3–21
- W25 Nov 23H · Almeria2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Getafe2 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
