Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Valencia were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Valencia. Valencia had 4 days of rest, Girona 3.9 and had to travel 388 km.
Away travel388 kmRest days4 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Valencia47%
Draw27%
Girona27%
Valencia45%
Draw27%
Girona28%
Valencia47%
Draw27%
Girona26%
Valencia39%
Draw28%
Girona33%
Valencia48%
Draw26%
Girona27%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
RefereeA. Ruiz
Team strength
Valencia
Girona
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
39
AttackIn forecast
49
52
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGirona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaGirona
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.38
ShotsContext
10.16
3.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
28%
On target shareContext
37%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.63
63%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.09
OffsidesContext
2.54
11.69
Shots allowedContext
14.84
4.32
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.90
BlocksContext
3.66
3.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.79
69%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
406
PassesContext
460
334
Accurate passesContext
394
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.94
FoulsContext
10.63
11.69
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
1.97
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
12.20
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
28%
On target shareContext
36%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
63%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.57
10.70
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.10
BlocksContext
4.10
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.25
74%
Save rateContext
82%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
402
PassesContext
493
334
Accurate passesContext
429
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.80
FoulsContext
9.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km520 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Girona
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel388 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Girona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Apr | 3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 388 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 520 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
18Pepelu
5César Tárrega
20R. Saravia
17L. Ramazani
2G. Rodríguez
8Javi Guerra
11Luis Rioja
15L. Beltrán
6U. Sadiq
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
4Arnau Martínez
20A. Witsel
23Iván Martín
18A. Ounahi
11T. Lemar
15V. Tsyhankov
14C. Echeverri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Girona
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Girona+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
1.53points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-4
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
Girona · Away
1.00points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-7-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Elche | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 2–3 HL 1–4 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Alaves | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 HL 0–5 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 3–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–6 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 36 of 93 · 1.16 per game | 35 of 93 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Valencia wins1 draws4 Girona wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.29
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 14%
- 4 Oct 2025Girona2–1Valencia
- 15 Mar 2025Girona1–1Valencia
- 21 Sep 2024Valencia2–0Girona
- 19 May 2024Valencia1–3Girona
- 2 Dec 2023Girona2–1Valencia
- 5 Feb 2023Girona1–0Valencia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.59 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 59% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Valencia | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.21 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 9.20 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 19/28 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 15/28 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 15/28 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 2.16 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.34 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 4.18 | 4.04 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 16/32 | 28% 9/32 | |
| Valencia | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 10.10 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Valencia32 games · scored 35 · conceded 47
4
2
0-15
3
7
16-30
2
7
31-45
6
11
46-60
8
8
61-75
12
12
76-90
Girona32 games · scored 35 · conceded 48
5
4
0-15
5
7
16-30
6
6
31-45
1
12
46-60
7
8
61-75
11
11
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
