Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Valencia were slight favourites.
Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 43). Valencia had 12.1 days of rest, Levante 13.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days12.1 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Valencia47%
Draw28%
Levante25%
Valencia48%
Draw26%
Levante26%
Valencia47%
Draw28%
Levante25%
Valencia40%
Draw29%
Levante31%
Valencia48%
Draw26%
Levante26%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.53
- Matches 30
Team strength
Valencia
Levante
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
39
AttackIn forecast
55
52
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaLevante
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.92
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
58%
Scored inContext
83%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.75
ShotsContext
10.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.42
31%
On target shareContext
34%
6.36
Shots in the boxContext
7.09
60%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.75
Shots allowedContext
17.42
5.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.58
3.82
BlocksContext
4.58
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
66%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
392
PassesContext
324
319
Accurate passesContext
251
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.58
FoulsContext
13.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.50
ShotsContext
10.50
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
35%
On target shareContext
31%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
64%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
16.80
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.67
BlocksContext
4.30
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
65%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
396
PassesContext
343
321
Accurate passesContext
272
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.10
FoulsContext
13.30
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
Rest12.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Levante
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.1La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 13.1La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 604 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
25Julen Agirrezabala(G)
14José Gayà
3Copete
5César Tárrega
12Thierry Correia
18Pepelu
8Javi Guerra
7A. Danjuma
10André Almeida
16Diego López
15L. Beltrán
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
4Adrián de la Fuente
2M. Moreno
22J. Toljan
9Iván Romero
20Oriol Rey
12Unai Vencedor
5Unai Elguezabal
24Carlos Álvarez
21E. Eyong
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Levante+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Levante · Away
1.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–4 A | L 1–4 H |
| Alaves | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 A | W 4–0 A |
| Oviedo | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–6 A | L 2–3 H |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 5 of 21 · 0.71 per game | 8 of 21 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Valencia wins1 draws1 Levante wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 30 Apr 2022Valencia1–1Levante
- 20 Dec 2021Levante3–4Valencia
- 12 Mar 2021Levante1–0Valencia
- 13 Sep 2020Valencia4–2Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.92 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.25 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Valencia | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 7.45 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 11.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 6/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Valencia | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 11.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.07league 4.00
Red cards0.37league 0.25
Cards 5+63%league 43%
Fouls24.7league 24.5
Penalties0.53league 0.35
Home wins50%league 48%
Valencia2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L18 May 25H · Athletic Club0–13
- W3 Feb 24H · Almeria2–14
Levante1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Sep 25H · Real Betis2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia12 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Levante12 games · scored 16 · conceded 23
3
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
6
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
