Valencia vs Mallorca – 19 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 17 Fri, Dec 19 · 20:00 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 17th · 15 pts · 16 played DWDDL

1–1Full time

Mallorca 14th · 17 pts · 16 played WLDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Valencia were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Valencia. Valencia had 6.3 days of rest, Mallorca 6.2 and had to travel 260 km.

Away travel260 kmRest days6.3 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Valencia44%

Draw28%

Mallorca28%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.08

Valencia45%

Draw27%

Mallorca28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Valencia44%

Draw28%

Mallorca28%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.06

Valencia37%

Draw29%

Mallorca35%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.21

Valencia45%

Draw27%

Mallorca29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Over 2.5 45% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 12

Team strength

Valencia

Mallorca

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

39 AttackIn forecast 50

52 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Mallorca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Mallorca

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.44

1.00 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

69% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 19%

10.31 ShotsContext 10.31

2.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.06

28% On target shareContext 39%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

62% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.38

12.75 Shots allowedContext 13.69

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.43 BlocksContext 3.94

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.62

67% Save rateContext 73%

48% PossessionIn forecast 44%

405 PassesContext 372

332 Accurate passesContext 298

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.69 FoulsContext 10.75

11.25 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.06

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.80 ShotsContext 10.30

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

26% On target shareContext 38%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.89

63% Box shareContext 54%

6% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.80

10.70 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

2.75 BlocksContext 4.50

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

65% Save rateContext 73%

49% PossessionIn forecast 45%

435 PassesContext 375

363 Accurate passesContext 300

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.89

12.40 FoulsContext 10.10

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km604 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Mallorca

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel260 km1,646 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Mallorca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 5
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	260 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	604 km	1,646 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14.7	15.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

14José Gayà 3Copete 5César Tárrega 12Thierry Correia

10André Almeida 18Pepelu 23F. Ugrinic 11Luis Rioja

15L. Beltrán 9Hugo Duro

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Mallorca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Leo Román(G)

22J. Mojica 21Raíllo 24M. Valjent 23Pablo Maffeo

12Samú Costa 8Manu Morlanes

17J. Virgili 18Mateo Joseph 6Antonio Sánchez

7V. Muriqi

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Mallorca Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia-0.8 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Mallorca+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 1.50points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 0.88

Mallorca · Away 0.50points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Mallorca
Atletico Madrid	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Sevilla	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 A
Levante	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 A
Real Madrid	L 0–4 A	L 1–2 A
Villarreal	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 A
Alaves	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 H
Oviedo	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 A
Espanyol	D 2–2 A	L 2–3 A
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 A
Barcelona	L 0–6 A	L 0–3 H
Getafe	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 H
Osasuna	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Points	14 of 42 · 1.00 per game	13 of 42 · 0.93 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Valencia wins3 draws3 Mallorca wins

Goals per game0.88 – 1.00 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 25%

30 Mar 2025Valencia1–0Mallorca
29 Nov 2024Mallorca2–1Valencia
30 Mar 2024Valencia0–0Mallorca
7 Oct 2023Mallorca1–1Valencia
25 May 2023Mallorca1–0Valencia
22 Oct 2022Valencia1–2Mallorca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Mallorca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	1.13
Conceded per game	1.56	1.44
Match goals	2.50	2.56	2.48
Over 1.5	81%	75%
Over 2.5	44%	56%	45%
Over 3.5	19%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	63%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	19%
Failed to score	31%	25%
Games	16	16

	Valencia	Mallorca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.50	1.20
Match goals	2.20	2.50	2.48
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	45%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Mallorca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.92	3.33
Corners conceded	5.38	6.40
Match total	10.30	9.73	9.57
Over 8.5	62% 8/13	80% 12/15
Over 9.5	54% 7/13	40% 6/15
Over 10.5	54% 7/13	40% 6/15
Cards
Cards	1.81	2.25
Opponent cards	2.38	2.13
Match total	4.19	4.38	4.34
Over 3.5	56% 9/16	56% 9/16
Over 4.5	50% 8/16	38% 6/16

	Valencia	Mallorca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.57	2.89
Corners conceded	5.00	6.89
Match total	9.57	9.78	9.57
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.40
Opponent cards	3.10	2.20
Match total	4.80	4.60	4.34
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.42league 4.09

Red cards0.67league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 45%

Fouls25.2league 24.6

Penalties0.50league 0.32

Home wins25%league 48%

Valencia1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D19 Apr 25A · Rayo Vallecano1–11

Mallorca1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.7.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L4 Oct 25A · Athletic Club1–27

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.