Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 50). Valencia had 7.9 days of rest, Real Betis 2.9 and had to travel 540 km.
Away travel540 kmRest days7.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Valencia31%
Draw28%
Real Betis41%
Valencia32%
Draw27%
Real Betis40%
Valencia32%
Draw28%
Real Betis40%
Valencia25%
Draw27%
Real Betis48%
Valencia32%
Draw27%
Real Betis41%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 29
Team strength
Valencia
Real Betis
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
39
AttackIn forecast
79
52
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaReal Betis
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.09
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
55%
Scored inContext
91%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
9.27
ShotsContext
14.91
2.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.82
31%
On target shareContext
32%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.91
58%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.18
Shots allowedContext
10.55
5.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.45
4.00
BlocksContext
2.20
3.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
66%
Save rateContext
78%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
391
PassesContext
495
317
Accurate passesContext
425
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.55
FoulsContext
9.45
10.55
Fouls sufferedContext
13.27
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.40
ShotsContext
12.70
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
36%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
57%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.20
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
4.11
BlocksContext
2.88
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
66%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
392
PassesContext
493
316
Accurate passesContext
424
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.20
FoulsContext
10.20
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel540 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 540 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 604 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.1 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
25Julen Agirrezabala(G)
14José Gayà
3Copete
5César Tárrega
12Thierry Correia
18Pepelu
8Javi Guerra
7A. Danjuma
10André Almeida
16Diego López
15L. Beltrán
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
2Héctor Bellerín
8Pablo Fornals
14S. Amrabat
10A. Ezzalzouli
20G. Lo Celso
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Real Betis+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.00
Real Betis · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-0
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Alaves | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Osasuna | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game | 13 of 18 · 2.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Valencia wins3 draws5 Real Betis wins
Goals per game1.30 – 2.00
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 23 May 2025Real Betis1–1Valencia
- 23 Nov 2024Valencia4–2Real Betis
- 20 Apr 2024Valencia1–2Real Betis
- 1 Oct 2023Real Betis3–0Valencia
- 4 Jun 2023Real Betis1–1Valencia
- 10 Nov 2022Valencia3–0Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.09 | |
| Match goals | 2.73 | 2.73 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 55% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 64% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Valencia | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.45 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 10.27 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.73 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.45 | |
| Match total | 3.73 | 4.00 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 5/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Valencia | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.30 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.20 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.99
Red cards0.21league 0.25
Cards 5+38%league 43%
Fouls25.7league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.35
Home wins38%league 49%
Valencia2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D23 May 25A · Real Betis1–12
- W5 Nov 23H · Granada CF1–03
Real Betis6 with this referee
Record3-3-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Sep 25H · Osasuna2–00
- D18 Aug 25A · Elche1–11
- D23 May 25H · Valencia1–11
- W5 May 24A · Osasuna2–02
- W26 Nov 23H · Las Palmas1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia11 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Real Betis11 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
2
5
0-15
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
