Valencia vs Real Betis – 25 Aug 2026

La Liga Gameweek 1 Tue, Aug 25 · 20:00 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

0–1Full time

Real Betis 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Valencia. Valencia had 3.1 days of rest, Real Betis 4 and had to travel 540 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel540 kmRest days3.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1

Valencia39%

Draw26%

Real Betis34%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.24

Valencia38%

Draw26%

Real Betis36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.31

Valencia39%

Draw27%

Real Betis34%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.23

Valencia32%

Draw26%

Real Betis41%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.39

Valencia40%

Draw26%

Real Betis34%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.25

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

28°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 65%

Heat stress

Referee · SpainJon Ander Gonzalez Esteban

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 9

Team strength

Valencia

Real Betis

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 72

39 AttackIn forecast 79

52 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Real Betis

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

70% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.60 ShotsContext 12.40

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

30% On target shareContext 40%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

62% Box shareContext 48%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.40 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.50 BlocksContext 2.80

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25

73% Save rateContext 81%

43% PossessionIn forecast 48%

365 PassesContext 468

297 Accurate passesContext 401

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.60 FoulsContext 11.30

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia D

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 46 · 1 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

D22 AugH · Celta Vigo0–01.7 xPts

Real Betis W

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel540 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 63 · 3 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W21 AugH · Real Sociedad1–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug	4La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	540 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

21Jesús Vázquez 4M. Diakhaby 18Pepelu 5César Tárrega 24Pablo Maffeo

7A. Danjuma 8Javi Guerra 2G. Rodríguez 39R. Sato

9Hugo Duro

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Álvaro Vallés(G)

23J. Firpo 16Valentín Gómez 3Diego Llorente 12Ángel Ortiz

8Pablo Fornals 6F. Bernal

17Rodrigo Riquelme 18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez 7Antony

9C. Hernández

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Betis Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia-0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Real Betis+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.00

Real Betis · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Valencia wins3 draws5 Real Betis wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.90 Over 2.570% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 20%

1 Feb 2026Real Betis2–1Valencia
9 Nov 2025Valencia1–1Real Betis
23 May 2025Real Betis1–1Valencia
23 Nov 2024Valencia4–2Real Betis
20 Apr 2024Valencia1–2Real Betis
1 Oct 2023Real Betis3–0Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	0.00	1.00	2.59
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Valencia	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.80
Conceded per game	1.30	1.50
Match goals	2.70	3.30	2.59
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	1.00	4.00
Corners conceded	2.00	5.00
Match total	3.00	9.00	9.50
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	3.00
Match total	5.00	6.00	5.21
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Valencia	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.30
Corners conceded	5.33	4.20
Match total	9.33	8.50	9.50
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.20	2.10
Match total	3.70	4.30	5.21
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban Spain · 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.67league 4.88

Red cards0.11league 0.25

Cards 5+56%league 63%

Fouls24.6league 27.2

Penalties0.22league 0.50

Home wins33%league 38%

Valencia

No previous matches with this referee.

Real Betis

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.