Venezia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Venezia. Venezia had 5.2 days of rest, Fiorentina 6.2 and had to travel 203 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel203 kmRest days5.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Venezia31%
Draw24%
Fiorentina45%
Venezia26%
Draw25%
Fiorentina49%
Venezia31%
Draw24%
Fiorentina45%
Venezia25%
Draw22%
Fiorentina53%
Venezia31%
Draw24%
Fiorentina45%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Venezia)
23°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 64%
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 50
Team strength
Venezia
Fiorentina
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
21
AttackIn forecast
42
14
DefenceIn forecast
34
16
Form indexContext
15
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeneziaFiorentina
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
2.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.07
-0.76
Goals minus xGContext
-0.79
33%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.33
ShotsContext
16.00
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
30%
On target shareContext
29%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
67%
Box shareContext
54%
5%
ConversionContext
2%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.00
13.33
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.00
BlocksContext
2.67
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
50%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
459
PassesContext
367
383
Accurate passesContext
305
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.46
11.00
FoulsContext
12.67
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
60%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.60
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
34%
On target shareContext
29%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
62%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.44
14.10
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.60
BlocksContext
3.10
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
63%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
389
PassesContext
391
313
Accurate passesContext
327
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.90
FoulsContext
12.20
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Venezia
LLL
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 0 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Venezia |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 6.2Serie A 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 203 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,350 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Venezia
Confirmed XI
1F. Stanković(G)
5R. Haps
2M. Moreno
3J. Schingtienne
20R. Sagrado
19S. Sohm
6G. Busio
71Kike Pérez
18A. Hainaut
45A. Adams
10J. Yeboah
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
33Viery
6L. Ranieri
3R. Drăgușin
20Álex Jiménez
44N. Fagioli
27C. Ndour
25A. Njie
14A. Atta
30Franco Mastantuono
23Beto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Venezia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Venezia+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fiorentina-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Venezia · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Fiorentina · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Venezia | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | L 2–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Venezia wins1 draws1 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game0.75 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 12 May 2025Venezia2–1Fiorentina
- 25 Aug 2024Fiorentina0–0Venezia
- 16 Apr 2022Fiorentina1–0Venezia
- 18 Oct 2021Venezia1–0Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Venezia | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.33 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Venezia | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.10 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 30% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Venezia | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 8.67 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.34 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Venezia | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.00 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 3.30
Red cards0.10league 0.00
Cards 5+52%league 17%
Fouls25.8league 22.7
Penalties0.28league 0.00
Home wins48%league 40%
Venezia2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D19 Jan 25A · Parma1–13
- L23 Apr 22H · Atalanta1–30
Fiorentina2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Oct 24A · Lecce6–05
- D28 Sep 23A · Frosinone1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Venezia3 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
76-90
Fiorentina3 games · scored 1 · conceded 9
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Venezia10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
1
6
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
