Venezia vs Lecce – 23 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 23 · 17:30 Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia

Venezia

0–2Full time

Lecce

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Lecce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 17). Venezia had ? days of rest, Lecce 90.9 and had to travel 738 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel738 kmRest days? · 90.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Venezia36%

Draw26%

Lecce37%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.32

Venezia36%

Draw26%

Lecce38%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.35

Venezia36%

Draw26%

Lecce37%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.31

Venezia30%

Draw26%

Lecce45%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.47

Venezia36%

Draw26%

Lecce38%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.37

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Venezia)

27°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 51%

Warm

Referee · ItalyAntonio Rapuano

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 58

Team strength

Venezia

Lecce

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

15 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

21 AttackIn forecast 36

14 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Venezia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Venezia

Lecce

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 0.87

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

60% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.30 ShotsContext 9.50

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

35% On target shareContext 30%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

58% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.20 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

4.40 BlocksContext 3.22

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

71% Save rateContext 66%

46% PossessionIn forecast 38%

344 PassesContext 281

265 Accurate passesContext 206

77% Pass accuracyContext 73%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.76

15.30 FoulsContext 12.40

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Venezia

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lecce

Rest90.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel738 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Venezia	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	90.9Serie A 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	738 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Venezia Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1F. Stanković(G)

4B. Franjić 17A. Bella-Kotchap 3J. Schingtienne

14Thierry Correia 26T. Bašić 6G. Busio 71Kike Pérez 18A. Hainaut

45A. Adams 10J. Yeboah

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 5J. Siebert 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

28Olaf Gorter 79Oumar Ngom 29L. Coulibaly

11K. N’Dri 69W. Geubbels 50S. Pierotti

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Venezia Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Venezia+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Lecce-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Venezia · Home No home games yet this season.

Lecce · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Venezia wins1 draws1 Lecce wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

6 Apr 2025Lecce1–1Venezia
25 Nov 2024Venezia0–1Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Venezia	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.61
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	48%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Venezia	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	—	0.80
Conceded per game	—	1.30
Match goals	—	2.10	2.61
Over 1.5	—	60%
Over 2.5	—	40%	48%
Over 3.5	—	10%
Both teams scored	—	40%	53%
Clean sheets	—	20%
Failed to score	—	50%
Games	0	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Venezia	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Venezia	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	3.70
Corners conceded	5.10	5.40
Match total	8.90	9.10	8.00
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.10
Opponent cards	1.80	1.60
Match total	3.80	3.70	3.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Antonio Rapuano Italy · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.45league 3.00

Red cards0.36league 0.00

Cards 5+48%league 0%

Fouls25.3league 21.8

Penalties0.26league 0.00

Home wins50%league 25%

Venezia2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D27 Oct 24A · Monza2–22
W11 Sep 21A · Empoli2–15

Lecce6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.0.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W8 Feb 26H · Udinese2–11
W2 Nov 25A · Fiorentina1–01
W18 May 25H · Torino1–01
D1 Dec 24H · Juventus1–11
L18 May 24H · Atalanta0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.