Venezia
Attack−19%
Defense risk+18%
Our take
Napoli were clear favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 14). Venezia were without G. Busio. Napoli were without A. Buongiorno and Alisson Santos. Venezia had 4.9 days of rest, Napoli 3.8 and had to travel 533 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel533 kmRest days4.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Venezia13%
Draw19%
Napoli68%
Venezia14%
Draw21%
Napoli66%
Venezia13%
Draw19%
Napoli68%
Venezia9%
Draw15%
Napoli75%
Venezia13%
Draw18%
Napoli70%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 0–2
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Venezia)
21°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 63%
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 13
Team strength
Venezia
Napoli
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
21
AttackIn forecast
61
14
DefenceIn forecast
70
8
Form indexContext
57
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack+60%
Defense risk−23%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
VeneziaNapoli
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
2.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
-0.75
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.00
ShotsContext
14.67
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
30%
On target shareContext
32%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.17
66%
Box shareContext
69%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.67
15.33
Shots allowedContext
16.67
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
2.83
BlocksContext
4.40
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
63%
Save rateContext
74%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
496
PassesContext
473
428
Accurate passesContext
407
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.33
FoulsContext
9.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.17
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
2.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
60%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.80
ShotsContext
12.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
35%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
67%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.60
16.10
Shots allowedContext
15.70
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.90
BlocksContext
5.13
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
61%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
443
PassesContext
519
370
Accurate passesContext
454
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.00
FoulsContext
9.10
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Venezia
LLLLL
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km419 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 8 · 0 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected
Napoli
LWDWL
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel533 km2,439 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 57 · 7 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Venezia |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Oct | 3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 533 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 419 km | 2,439 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Venezia
Confirmed XI
1F. Stanković(G)
15Juan Jesus
2M. Moreno
25R. Halhal
5R. Haps
26T. Bašić
19S. Sohm
71Kike Pérez
18A. Hainaut
45A. Adams
10J. Yeboah
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
5B. Badiashile
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
6B. Gilmour
22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay
23Giovane
20L. Lucca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Venezia
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −14.3% · Defence line −12.8% of weighted minutes
- MID G. Busio Core 7.27 Att −12.5% Def −6.5%
- DEF A. Bella-Kotchap Rotation 6.64 Def −2.7%
- DEF Thierry Correia Rotation 6.34 Def −2.7%
- MID B. Franjić Rotation 7.05 Att −1.8% Def −0.9%
Napoli
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −19.4% · Defence line −18.0% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Buongiorno Starter 6.66 Def −11.7%
- ATT Alisson Santos Starter 7.03 Att −14.8%
- DEF M. Olivera Rotation 6.78 Def −3.5%
- MID F. Anguissa Rotation 6.69 Att −2.1% Def −1.2%
- MID A. Vergara Rotation 6.82 Att −1.6% Def −1.0%
- MID C. Favasuli Rotation 6.77 Att −0.9% Def −0.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Venezia+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Napoli-0.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Venezia · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.67
Napoli · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Venezia | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | L 2–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Frosinone | L 2–3 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Venezia wins1 draws3 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.25
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets25% · 100%
- 16 Mar 2025Venezia0–0Napoli
- 29 Dec 2024Napoli1–0Venezia
- 6 Feb 2022Venezia0–2Napoli
- 22 Aug 2021Napoli2–0Venezia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Venezia | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.67 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Venezia | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.50 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Venezia | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.17 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.60 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 2.17 | 3.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Venezia | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.00 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.90 | 3.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.54league 3.26
Red cards0.00league 0.07
Cards 5+23%league 28%
Fouls25.1league 21.8
Penalties0.23league 0.11
Home wins62%league 48%
VeneziaNo previous matches with this referee.
NapoliNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Venezia6 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Napoli6 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Venezia10 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
