Verona vs Atalanta – 6 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 6 · 19:45 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 19th · 6 pts · 13 played LLDLL

3–1Full time

Atalanta 12th · 16 pts · 13 played DLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were clear favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Verona. Verona had 7.2 days of rest, Atalanta 6.1 and had to travel 107 km.

Away travel107 kmRest days7.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Verona16%

Draw24%

Atalanta61%

Expected goals 0.81 – 1.82

Verona17%

Draw23%

Atalanta60%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.93

Verona17%

Draw24%

Atalanta59%

Expected goals 0.83 – 1.77

Verona12%

Draw21%

Atalanta68%

Expected goals 0.72 – 2.04

Verona16%

Draw22%

Atalanta62%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.98

Over 2.5 49% Both score 47% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 92

Team strength

Verona

Atalanta

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

15 AttackIn forecast 48

29 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

Atalanta

0.62 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.23

1.54 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.08

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00

-0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

54% Scored inContext 77%

23% Clean sheetsContext 23%

11.92 ShotsContext 14.92

4.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

38% On target shareContext 29%

7.46 Shots in the boxContext 9.38

63% Box shareContext 63%

5% ConversionContext 8%

2.36 OffsidesContext 2.33

12.46 Shots allowedContext 10.54

4.58 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.00 BlocksContext 2.92

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

67% Save rateContext 77%

40% PossessionIn forecast 57%

313 PassesContext 495

229 Accurate passesContext 427

73% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.89

17.15 FoulsContext 10.00

8.69 Fouls sufferedContext 9.23

2.62 Yellow cardsContext 1.54

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.63

60% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.50 ShotsContext 15.60

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

38% On target shareContext 28%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.90

67% Box shareContext 63%

6% ConversionContext 6%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.67

12.20 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.90 BlocksContext 3.00

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

65% Save rateContext 76%

40% PossessionIn forecast 57%

309 PassesContext 503

220 Accurate passesContext 433

71% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.86

17.20 FoulsContext 9.90

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km396 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel107 km1,309 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Nov	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	107 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	396 km	1,309 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

37A. Bella-Kotchap 15V. Nelsson 5Unai Núñez

3M. Frese 24A. Bernede 73Al Musrati 36C. Niasse 7R. Belghali

25D. Mosquera 17Giovane

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

19B. Djimsiti 4I. Hien 3K. Kossounou

77D. Zappacosta 15M. de Roon 13Éderson 16R. Bellanova

11A. Lookman 17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona-0.9 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Atalanta+1.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.50points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 0-3-3
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.33

Atalanta · Away 1.00points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-2
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Verona	Atalanta
Parma	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Lecce	D 0–0 A	W 4–1 H
Como	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 H
Pisa	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Sassuolo	L 0–1 H	L 0–3 H
Juventus	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Cremonese	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Lazio	L 0–4 A	D 0–0 H
Udinese	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Points	5 of 27 · 0.56 per game	9 of 27 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Verona wins1 draws6 Atalanta wins

Goals per game0.88 – 2.63 Over 2.575% Both scored63% Clean sheets0% · 38%

8 Feb 2025Verona0–5Atalanta
26 Oct 2024Atalanta6–1Verona
15 Apr 2024Atalanta2–2Verona
27 Sep 2023Verona0–1Atalanta
20 May 2023Atalanta3–1Verona
28 Aug 2022Verona0–1Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	0.62	1.23
Conceded per game	1.54	1.08
Match goals	2.15	2.31	2.63
Over 1.5	69%	85%
Over 2.5	46%	31%	49%
Over 3.5	23%	15%
Both teams scored	54%	62%	47%
Clean sheets	23%	23%
Failed to score	46%	23%
Games	13	13

	Verona	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	2.20	2.10	2.63
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	47%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	3.69	6.00
Corners conceded	4.08	3.67
Match total	7.77	9.67	8.84
Over 8.5	38% 5/13	58% 7/12
Over 9.5	23% 3/13	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	15% 2/13	33% 4/12
Cards
Cards	2.62	1.62
Opponent cards	2.00	1.38
Match total	4.62	3.00	4.04
Over 3.5	77% 10/13	54% 7/13
Over 4.5	62% 8/13	0% 0/13

	Verona	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	5.60
Corners conceded	3.90	3.20
Match total	7.60	8.80	8.84
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	1.70
Match total	5.20	3.50	4.04
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 92 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.95league 3.92

Red cards0.21league 0.14

Cards 5+40%league 39%

Fouls24.1league 26.0

Penalties0.24league 0.32

Home wins46%league 39%

Verona8 with this referee

Record3-0-5 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L29 Nov 24A · Cagliari0–12
L29 Oct 24A · Lecce0–14
L17 Mar 24H · AC Milan1–31
L30 Dec 23H · Salernitana0–12
W21 Apr 23H · Bologna2–12

Atalanta9 with this referee

Record3-3-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

D30 Aug 25A · Parma1–12
W13 Apr 25H · Bologna2–04
W23 Feb 25A · Empoli5–01
D11 Jan 25A · Udinese0–02
L25 Nov 23H · Napoli1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.