Verona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 17). Como usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Verona had 6.8 days of rest, Como 7.8 and had to travel 154 km.
Away travel154 kmRest days6.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Verona17%
Draw27%
Como56%
Verona17%
Draw23%
Como60%
Verona17%
Draw27%
Como55%
Verona13%
Draw24%
Como62%
Verona18%
Draw26%
Como56%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 41%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Verona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 74
Team strength
Verona
Como
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
15
AttackIn forecast
72
29
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeronaComo
0.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
49%
Scored inContext
74%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
49%
10.86
ShotsContext
14.09
3.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.91
33%
On target shareContext
35%
6.03
Shots in the boxContext
9.09
54%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.61
13.14
Shots allowedContext
8.94
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.17
BlocksContext
3.00
2.66
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.52
61%
Save rateContext
73%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
328
PassesContext
520
248
Accurate passesContext
456
76%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.91
15.54
FoulsContext
13.03
9.11
Fouls sufferedContext
11.89
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.70
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
40%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.80
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
26%
On target shareContext
34%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
49%
Box shareContext
65%
4%
ConversionContext
15%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.70
Shots allowedContext
8.30
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
3.80
BlocksContext
3.10
1.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
54%
Save rateContext
70%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
334
PassesContext
511
261
Accurate passesContext
452
78%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.91
15.80
FoulsContext
12.60
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Verona
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel154 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Verona |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 3 May | 7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 154 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 313 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
6N. Valentini
5A. Edmundsson
15V. Nelsson
3M. Frese
24A. Bernede
63R. Gagliardini
11J. Akpa Akpro
7R. Belghali
10T. Suslov
18K. Bowie
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
31M. Vojvoda
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
38Assane Diao
11A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Verona-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Como+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Verona · Home
0.47points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-11
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.47
Como · Away
1.71points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-4
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 0.76
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Verona | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Torino | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Genoa | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Bologna | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Napoli | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Parma | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Pisa | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Udinese | L 1–3 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Lazio | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Inter | L 1–2 H | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 20 of 102 · 0.59 per game | 59 of 102 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Verona wins1 draws2 Como wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 29 Oct 2025Como3–1Verona
- 18 May 2025Verona1–1Como
- 29 Sep 2024Como3–2Verona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Verona | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.69 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.31 | 2.49 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 46% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 43% | 41% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 49% | |
| Failed to score | 51% | 26% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Verona | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.90 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 41% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Verona | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.82 | 3.97 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 2.97 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 6.94 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 18/34 | 22% 7/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 10/34 | 16% 5/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 7/34 | 13% 4/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.12 | 4.55 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 19/35 | 69% 24/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 15/35 | 49% 17/35 | |
| Verona | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 6.60 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.10 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.70
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+45%league 34%
Fouls26.1league 24.7
Penalties0.38league 0.28
Home wins34%league 40%
Verona6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W23 Feb 25H · Fiorentina1–02
- L8 Dec 24H · Empoli1–42
- W20 May 24A · Salernitana2–12
- D17 Feb 24H · Juventus2–20
- L14 May 23H · Torino0–13
Como5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L6 Dec 25A · Inter0–42
- D27 Sep 25H · Cremonese1–14
- W3 May 25A · Parma1–01
- L4 Nov 24A · Empoli0–10
- D26 Aug 24A · Cagliari1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Verona35 games · scored 24 · conceded 57
1
8
0-15
7
6
16-30
7
10
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
8
61-75
1
18
76-90
Como34 games · scored 57 · conceded 27
11
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
8
46-60
11
4
61-75
13
4
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
2
0-15
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
76-90
Como10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
