Verona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Verona were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Verona. Verona had 14.9 days of rest, Cremonese 17 and had to travel 83 km.
Away travel83 kmRest days14.9 · 17Matches / 14d0 · 0
Verona46%
Draw29%
Cremonese26%
Verona49%
Draw26%
Cremonese25%
Verona46%
Draw29%
Cremonese25%
Verona39%
Draw30%
Cremonese31%
Verona48%
Draw26%
Cremonese26%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Verona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Verona
Cremonese
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
15
AttackIn forecast
16
29
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeronaCremonese
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
2.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.50
ShotsContext
7.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
33%
On target shareContext
60%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
—
44%
Box shareContext
—
5%
ConversionContext
33%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
17.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
5.50
BlocksContext
4.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
60%
Save rateContext
73%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
285
PassesContext
341
218
Accurate passesContext
272
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.51
Team ratingContext
6.86
16.50
FoulsContext
13.00
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
—
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.40
ShotsContext
9.30
2.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
23%
On target shareContext
38%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.88
56%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.86
10.30
Shots allowedContext
16.40
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
66%
Save rateContext
67%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
305
PassesContext
348
227
Accurate passesContext
273
74%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.82
17.10
FoulsContext
10.20
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Verona
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest17 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Verona |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 17Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 83 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
3M. Frese
15V. Nelsson
5Unai Núñez
63R. Gagliardini
12D. Bradarić
24A. Bernede
8S. Serdar
7R. Belghali
16G. Orban
17Giovane
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
27J. Vandeputte
38W. Bondo
18M. Collocolo
7A. Zerbin
99A. Sanabria
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Verona
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Verona-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Cremonese+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Verona · Home
No home games yet this season.
Cremonese · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Verona wins1 draws0 Cremonese wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 30 Apr 2023Cremonese1–1Verona
- 9 Jan 2023Verona2–0Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Verona | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Verona | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Verona | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 9.00 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.50 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Verona | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 6.38 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 10.26 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 3.57
Red cards0.00league 0.07
Cards 5+0%league 36%
Fouls25.0league 25.9
Penalties0.00league 0.14
Home wins50%league 46%
VeronaNo previous matches with this referee.
CremoneseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Verona2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Cremonese2 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
